Daily Market Wire 1 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 1, 2024

Canola and HRW eased more than 2 percent, other markets less. The Australian dollar eased 1 1/2 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US6.25c/bu to 648.75c/bu
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat down 12.75c/bu to 668.75c/bu
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 4.75c/bu to 722.25c/bu
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 down €2.50/t to €233.75/t;
  • Corn December 2024 down 3.25c/bu to 469.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 down 18.5c/bu to 1159.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$14.10/t to $635/t
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €6/t to €465.75/t
  • ASX May 2024 wheat down A$5.50/t to $341/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down A$5/t to A$365/t
  • ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$317/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$330/t
  • AUD dollar down 93 points to US$0.6473.


Brazilian national agricultural agency Conab reported that as at 28 April, the 2023-24 soybean harvest was 91pc complete (87pc week ago, 94pc year ago). Fieldwork was largely complete in Paraná state, aided by favourable conditions. Harvest was 60pc complete in Rio Grande do Sul (50 pc year ago), with operations taking place when weather permits. First (full-season) maize harvest was 60pc complete (57pc, 64pc). Progress was slow in Rio Grande do Sul, with reports of high moisture levels having an adverse impact on grain quality. With planting of secondary (safrinha) maize finished, crops were generally in good condition in most states. 

Reuters reports that two vessels carrying wheat purchased by Egypt’s GASC are still facing delays in Russia. Vessels MV Wadi Tiba and MV Edfu, both loaded with around 60kt of wheat have been stuck for weeks. One source said the ships have been delayed despite being inspected and approved for shipment by Egypt’s agricultural quarantine. Two other vessels purchased by GASC also faced delays in March and April but eventually received phytosanitary certificates from Russian authorities and were released for shipment. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has lowered his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1Mt to 49Mt, citing variable yields and impacts from corn stunt disease which will be greater in later-harvested crops. Dr Cordonnier warned the Argentine corn crop estimate could decline further. He kept his Argentine soybean crop estimate at 51Mt. For Brazilian crops Dr Cordonnier maintained his estimates at 147Mt for soybeans and 112Mt for corn. 

Palm oil prices under pressure are at their lowest point in months due to a lack of demand from top buyers and increased supplies. The market also tracked a sharp decline in prices of soybean oil, palm’s closest substitute for food and fuel.


WA current crop wheat and barley markets have traded sideways to slightly lower so far this week. With last week’s strong rally across US and Europe wheat futures, fresh export enquiry has been limited. Current crop markets are still being supported by the execution of the existing export sales program. APW1 in the Kwinana port zone is now A$390/t FIS, H2 about $398/t FIS and H1 about $405/t FIS, with values in other port zones are $5/t below Kwinana. Current crop canola values remain close to $720/t FIS for CAN and $710/t for CAG. New season CAN bids remain at $750/t FIS, and new season wheat bids have strengthened to $390-395/t FIS Kwinana.

The USDA FAS attaché in Canberra has forecast 2024-25 Australian wheat production at 25.8Mt, down 200kt from 2023-24 and 3pc below the 10-year average. The report notes a “tale of two,” with farmers in the eastern states entering the 2024-25 growing season with ample soil moisture and a favourable weather outlook while conditions are dry, and the forecast lacks meaningful moisture for those in Western Australia and South Australia.

Line ups data this week shows there is currently 3.04Mt of total grain on the stem, down from 3.28Mt last week. Wheat at 1.80Mt is down from 1.92Mt, barley is at 575kt up slightly from 547kt, canola is down from 810kt to 668kt, and sorghum remains unchanged at 0kt. Average vessel wait time decreased slightly for most ports, with the overall average wait time 7 days. There are currently 10 vessels anchored and 13 loading at Australian ports



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