It’s a rare event to look across the major grain-growing areas in the world and struggle to find anything but good conditions from the US through to the Black Sea and Australia. Rain has fallen where it was needed, prompting favorable conditions, particularly important in the northern hemisphere which is at the business end for winter-wheat production. Spring wheat conditions have snuck through without much fanfare but, according to the latest USDA update, 81 per cent of the crop was rated good to excellent. This compares with the five-year average of around 67pc, and is well above the previous five-year high. The Black Sea has managed to jag some late rainfall, and while the jury is still out on how much this will benefit the poorer areas of the south, it has bolstered the spring crop’s potential. Don’t get me wrong: there is the odd area that may be in the embryonic stages of a potential problem. Parts of the US corn belt need a drink, and some heat is on the way, parts of the EU won’t recover regardless of the late-season rain, and the northern UK wheat belt is beyond repair.

Egypt’s GASC stepped in after the close, seeking wheat for the 12-22 July, along with a spattering of other demand. The Philippines is looking for some feed wheat, which will give us a decent barometer as to the Aussie market floor. Based on last night’s Aussie dollar, Australia should win this business ahead of Argentina. The past month has been unseasonably dry in the winter wheat areas of Argentina but, according to the 15-day forecast, relief is on the way. If the rain arrives, it should help solidify current production estimates. Predicting the political landscape and how it will effect trade in Argentina is extremely difficult. Reports overnight said the Argentinian Government planned to nationalise the soybean-crushing giant, Vicentin, which recently announced it was bankrupt, a classic example of a country that has had its challenges in agriculture. Australia sources much of its soybean meal from Argentina, which is particularly important to the pork and poultry markets. The plan B at some level is canola meal, which is once again faced with a snug balance sheet both locally and internationally.