Markets

Daily Market Wire 11 November 2021

Lachstock Consulting, November 11, 2021

Markets firmed between 2pc and 3pc, except soybeans which lifted only in fractions. US dollar strengthened 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US24.5c/bu to 803c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 24c/bu to 817.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December up 22.5c/bu to 1046.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €8.75/t to €294.75/t;
  • Corn December contract up 14.5c/bu to 569.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract up 4.75c/bu to 1216.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$15/t to $1004.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €11.50/t to €704.25/t;
  • US dollar index was up 0.9 to 94.9;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.732;
  • CAD weaker at $1.250;
  • EUR weaker at $1.148;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up A$9/t to $368/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $1/t to $370/t.

International

Chicago wheat rallied 24.5usc.bu, Kansas put on 24usc/bu and Minni added 22.5usc/bu. Matif wheat added EUR$8.75/t, Black Sea was quoted US$10/t higher and ASX closed yesterday at A$370/t,  $2 higher. CME corn was up 14.5usc/bu while Dalian corn went home basically unchanged. The soy complex was a little more subdued with beans adding 4.75usc/bu, meal adding 20usc/st while oil added 0.82c/lb. Canola didn’t miss out. Matif firmed EUR$11.50/t while Winnipeg added C$15/t. Not everything was higher. Crude ended its recent run, falling $3.04/bbl, the Dow was off 195 points and the AUD was lower, closing at 0.7332 – this puts the Dec 21 swap at a new contract high of A$402/t.

Russian Ag Minister, Dmitry Patrushev said in a government meeting that Russia could increase export taxes if prices surged. Additionally, he reiterated that there will be an export quota for the first half of next year. A tinkering with the tax rate, which has been in place since mid-year, would only occur if global values continue to rise – cause and effect?

Funds have been a feature of the recent round of buying. Unfortunately, we will have to wait to see how much length they have added because the current-period CFTC reporting window will miss the rally which took place last night.

France AgriMer indicated that wheat stocks went up from their Oct estimate of 2.36Mt to 3.17Mt, contrary to what many have suggested given the port activity. Exports haven’t been officially reported since July so the increase in stocks was, to many, a surprise.

The French increase in stocks is also at odds with the wider EU. According to the USDA, Europe hasn’t seen ending stock levels this low since the mid-1990s.

EU indicated the consumer cost of staples derived from cereals and vegetable oils jumped 3pc in October, setting a fresh decade high.

After 12 down days the Baltic Dry Shipping index has had 2 up days. Yesterday’s settlement still represents a 50.35pc fall from the highs set at the beginning of Oct this year.

Since listing back in mid-2019 US meat-substitute producer Beyond Meat stock price yesterday traded at US$94.48 after posting its fourth quarter downgrade having once traded to a just under $240 a share.

Australia

More firmness emerged in Aussie markets yesterday. Grower cash boards were up $5-10/t on wheat across the country. The ASX January 2022 eastern wheat contract came out the blocks hard in the morning on open trading up to $375/t for smalls in which was up $16/t from previous days settle, it then settled the day out at $368/t. Barley gained a buck or 2 also over the day on the grower cash boards and canola was up $20/t.

With weakness in the AUD, offshore moves and more weather havoc for Aussie growers we are set to see some more strength in markets again today.

The stop-start to harvest continues yet again for another day with heavy falls of rain across NSW. Moree has recorded 53mm, Mungindi 35mm, Narrabri 22mm, Coonamble 17mm. This will again pull headers up and cause more concerns for quality. The question is how much downgrade wheat the market is estimating.

 

 

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