Daily Market Wire 12 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 12, 2022

North American markets gained more than 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US10 cents per bushel to 826.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 15.25c/bu to 892c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 15.75c/bu to 935c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.75/t to €328/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.25/t to $346/t;
  • Corn December contract up 9.25c/bu to 627.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 20.75c/bu to 1448.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was up C$10.90/t to $866.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €1/t to €660/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$1/t to $416/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.710.


All eyes will be on the WASDE release tonight to see where it places US corn and soybean yields. Most estimates are well below the July WASDE number.  There will also be interest in the WASDE  Russian production forecast this month as its number n July, at 81.5Mt, was well below other estimates. Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, recently forecast Russian wheat production at 95Mt.

The proportion of US corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought fell from 31pc last week to 28pc this week. Soybean growing areas experiencing drought fell from 28pc to 24pc.

European crop analyst Stratégie Grains cut its EU corn production forecast by 10Mt to 55.4Mt due to severe drought across Europe. In its monthly report the analyst said the outlook for the 2022 crop grain maize harvests across Europe had deteriorated drastically and would yield the smallest harvest since 2007, the lowest in 15 years. It increased its forecast for 2022-23 EU corn imports by nearly 3Mt to 20Mt and lowered its 2022-23 EU wheat export forecast by 1.4Mt to 29Mt. More wheat would be used domestically for feed amid strong export competition from Russia.

The 2021-22 corn crop in Brazil is forecast 114.7Mt according to Conab, down from 115.7Mt in July. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 116.6Mt. Yield and area both were revised down slightly from the previous month’s estimate. Soybean production was unchanged at 124Mt.

The Government of Bangladesh, in a statement from the Ministry of Food, said it would import 300,000 tons of wheat from Russia.

The first shipments of wheat should start flowing from Ukrainian ports next week, a top UN official said on Wednesday. “The silos were full of corn and the ships that were there have been loaded with corn. We’re actually transitioning to wheat,” interim UN coordinator at the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul, Frederick Kenney, said.  Ships are inspected coming into and out of the Bosphorus by JCC representatives. “We’re seeing steady progress in the number of ships coming in and out.”


Local bids were mixed yesterday. We saw grower east coast new crop wheat bids unchanged to a buck or 2 softer. Trade markets, both track and delivered, were a touch firmer over the course of the day. Barley continued to slide with new crop markets off $3-5/t and canola off $10-15/t. The stronger Australian currency is also helping keep a lid on prices.

The 8-day rainfall forecast is looking pretty wet for all states with WA, SA, Vic and NSW forecast to receive 25-50mm across most winter cropping regions. Some NSW growers will be hoping for falls on the lower end of that range where crops are struggling because of waterlogging.

Rail freight services on a section of the South Western line are suspended after a truck collided with a loaded grain train east of Goondiwindi in southern Queensland earlier this week. Link here to read the story.

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