Markets

Daily Market Wire 12 February 2020

Lachstock Consulting, February 12, 2020

WASDE led US futures mostly weaker.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down 10 cents per bushel to 542c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 4.25c to 468.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 2.5c to 531.25c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €2.25 per tonne to €192.5/t;
  • Corn March contract down 2c to 379.75c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 0.5c to 884.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$0.40/t to $459.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €0.25/t to €390.50/t;
  • Brent crude April contract up US$0.74 per barrel to $54.01;
  • Dow Jones index up 17 points to 29,231;
  • AUD stronger at $0.6710;
  • CAD stronger at $1.329;
  • EUR stronger at $1.092.

Market news

Wheat broke off hard after the USDA brought little to encourage the market and the board continued to push technical levels – CBOT ended down a dime to 542¢, KC 4 1/4¢ to 468 1/4¢, Minny -2.5¢ to 531 1/4¢, and Matif was off 2.25€ to 192.5€ on the earlier close. Corn dropped two cents to 379 3/4¢ and beans were up three quarters of a cent to 884.75¢ (Matif and Winnipeg both off slightly to 390.5€ and $459.4 respectively).  Crude oil has remained range bound, trading up slightly overnight to $49.9 WTI / $54 Brent and the DOW was nearly unchanged (+17 points).  The AUD’s slightly stronger at 67.1¢, the CAD $1.329, and the EUR $1.092.

Lots of chatter prior to the WASDE report release overnight, but come publishing time the changes largely were limited, as most people expected.

The USDA pushed up US wheat exports by 25 million bushels (mbu) and cut corn by 50 mbu, offsetting higher ethanol use to end with unchanged ending stocks.

Soybeans did see exports higher by 50 mbu, justified on the back of higher Chinese demand but no broader trade war/agreement impacts reflected.

Global wheat figures were mostly unchanged and there were no changes to Australia’s production number, leaving the crop at 15.6Mt vs Lachstock 15.3Mt.  All in all, a relatively quiet report as expected.

Bean harvest ideas in South American continue to push up, noting that while leaving Argentina unchanged, USDA increased their Brazilian bean crop estimate by 2Mt, even as slow harvest remains something of a concern.  Harvest estimates in Brazil are about 10% behind average, an ongoing background worry for safrinha corn markets.

Chinese soybean purchases of new crop Brazilian beans are also reported to be continuing through recent days, which continues to raise questions about trade deal commitments.

Cash global wheat markets are getting interesting. Algerian tender results saw heavy French participation implied by the optional origin sales with 660,000t reported bought and two thirds of that from French houses, and not from multi-nationals.  With French markets pre-occupied with the Algerian tender, Egypt’s GASC didn’t see a single French offer. GASC booked instead 6 Black Sea boats which were three Russian, and three Romanian.

Australia

Aussie markets continue to be a mixed bag, with barley and wheat softer across the east coast with ASX wheat March contract setting at $359.50/t and barley at $293/t. WA wheat firmed a fraction on some grower parcels that were offered up.

Rain forecast remains positive for Queensland. Some growers through Queensland and  northern NSW reporting that they are close to having a full moisture profile.

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CBOT will be closed next Monday, for the US President’s Day holiday, and will reopen on Monday night US time

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