Markets

Daily Market Wire 13 January 2020

Guest Author, January 13, 2020

Futures closed firmer.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up 2.25 cents per bushel to 564.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 4.5 cents to 494.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 6.25c/bu to 558.25c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €0.25 to €191.50/t;
  • Corn March contract up 2.5c to 385.75c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 2.5c/bu to 946c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$0.80/t to $484/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €1.50/t to €421.50/t;
  • Brent crude February contract down to $64.90 per barrel;
  • Dow Jones index down 133.13 points to 28823.77 points;
  • AUD stronger at $0.69;
  • CAD stronger at $1.306;
  • EUR stronger at $1.112.

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Volatile trading on Friday following the USDA reports saw most grains dip off mid-session but pick up back into the close – Chicago wheat ended up 2 1/4¢ to 564.5¢, KC +4.5¢ to 494 3/4¢, Minny +6 1/4¢ to 558 1/4¢, and Matif ended down a quarter of a euro to 191.5€ on the earlier close.  Corn closed up 2.5¢ to 385 3/4¢ and beans +2.5¢ to 946¢ (Matif +1.5€ to 421.5€, Winnipeg +$2.5 to 385.75).  Meanwhile, crude oil has continued to weaken to $58.9 WTI / $64.9 Brent and the DOW gave up 133 points.  The AUD is about half a cent stronger to 69.0¢, the CAD at $1.306, and the EUR at $1.112.

 

USDA confirms lower Hard Red Winter wheat area

Given the wide variety of important information coming out, there was something published on the day for nearly everyone, though the most significant from our perspective was the confirmation of much lower wheat acres in the HRW belt (21.8 million, down 600,000ac vs last year).  SRW acres were above expectations at 5.6 million, but this leaves the overall winter wheat area down some 300,000 y-o-y.  Figures may be adjusted later in the season as USDA gets more data and with ongoing weather concerns still out there.

Higher corn and bean yields made for some head scratching although they also announced that there will be yet another resurvey of unharvested row crop acres in the northern plains.  If previous resurveys in 2019 are anything to go by, we’re unlikely to see significant changes, but it does still throw a tenuous lifeline to this looking for a tighter crop.  Global figures did see them cut their Australia wheat crop estimate to 15.6Mt (Lachstock 15.3 Mt) and shift some demand around, but it’s all a small factor for the market in comparison to the wheat seedings and row crop reports.

US-China trade

With the reports out of the way, we’re back into trade war politics.

Chinese officials are set to travel to the US today and markets are cautious watching for better indications as to the final deal.  We’re cautious about the sentiment here relative to what the final deal may be, but the upside potential is there if rumours about inclusions prove accurate.

We’re watching to see if any flash sales come out during/after the deal discussions, so far nothing since last week’s new season business.

Overall export sales were also dismal on Friday, so without any new Chinese business markets will have to re-evaluate export estimates.

Australia

Back locally, earlier market momentum continued into Friday – barley markets ended the week up some $15-20+ in many zones with reasonable amounts traded and wheat picked up $5-10 across the entire week.

Showers did delay some late harvest in Western Victoria with 10+ mm in parts, and we’re hoping that forecasts for central and northern NSW later this week are realized.

Sorghum is pretty well past viability, but any moisture will be a welcome start to hopefully rebuilding soil moisture as we look towards 2020 plantings.

Weather models do remain mixed on the total accumulation levels, but they’ve consolidated pretty well on at least seeing some moisture, but the 3-4″+ that’s on some of the models would be far better though.

 

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