Canola and rapeseed gained at least two percent.

• Chicago May 2024 wheat up US0.25c/bu to 547.5c/bu;
• Kansas May 2024 wheat down 1.5c/bu to 597.25c/bu;
• Minneapolis May 2024 wheat up 2c/bu to 672c/bu;
• MATIF wheat May 2024 up €0/t to €196.75/t;
• Corn May 2024 up 0c/bu to 441.75c/bu;
• Soybeans May 2024 up 16.75c/bu to 1196c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$12/t to $627.70/t;
• MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €13.25/t to €444/t;
• ASX March 2024 wheat up A$6/t to $319.50/t;
• ASX May 2024 wheat up A$2.50/t to $321/t;
• ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
• ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$295/t;
• AUD dollar down 8 points to US$0.6606.

Brazil national agricultural agency Conab cut its estimate of 2023-24 Brazil soybean production by 2.6Mt to 146.86Mt (148.3Mt expected, USDA 155Mt) and cut total corn production by 0.94Mt to 112.75Mt (115.7Mt expected, USDA 124Mt). It noted soy yields were well below expectations in the centre west due to unfavourable weather conditions in the beginning of the soybean cycle. It cited an overall fall in the corn area sown, especially for Safrinha area, which is expected to fall by around 8pc this year. 

South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean and corn production estimates unchanged at 145Mt and 112Mt respectively, with a neutral to lower bias toward both crops. Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 54Mt for corn, with a neutral bias toward both. 

India’s wheat inventories held in government warehouses have dropped to their lowest level since 2017. Wheat reserves in state stores totalled 9.7Mt at the start of March, compared to 11.7Mt in March 2023, the Food Corporation of India said. 

According to Ukraine Grain Traders Union (UGA), 2024 combined grain and oilseeds production is likely to fall to 76.1Mt (82.6Mt previous year), including 26.3Mt of corn, 20Mt of wheat and 13.7Mt of sunflower seeds. With smaller production, UGA said Ukraine’s exportable grain and oilseed surplus for 2024-25 could decrease to 43.7Mt (53.2Mt previous year), including 20.5Mt of corn, 13Mt of wheat, 4Mt of soybeans and 3.6Mt of rapeseed. 

The Biden administration has announced a stopgap plan to send up to US$300 million in weapons to Ukraine, the first new aid package since funding ran out in late December. The aid will reportedly include air defence interceptors, artillery rounds and armour systems. The Senate had previously passed an emergency aid bill, including $60.1 billion for Ukraine, but Republicans in the House have refused to put the measure to a vote. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 60kt of feed barley in an international tender yesterday, at an estimated $216.75/t c&f for shipment in the first half of April. 

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 114,305 tonnes of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday. 

Australia

Local markets found a little strength to end last week. The ASX May eastern Australia wheat contract closed up $2/t at $318.50/t but values were down overall for the week. The local market was feeling the weight, as offshore values moved lower and a firmer AUD put further pressure on values. We are still seeing some limited grower selling at current values.

Rainfall totals for the week ending 11 March were a little disappointing across most of WA cropping region with the rainfall band pushing further east, missing most cropping areas, with totals less than 15mm. There is another promising week on the forecast with 10-25mm expected across WA, while the eastern states are in for another relatively dry week.