Markets

Daily Market Wire 14 December 2020

Lachstock Consulting, December 14, 2020

Markets firmed.  The US dollar index steadied at 90.9, with strong optimism in premarket chatter today with the vaccine rollouts.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US18cents/bushel to 614.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 17.75c/bu to 581.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 7.5c/bu to 570c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €5.75/t to €210.50;
  • Corn March contract up 2.25c/bu to 423.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract up 7.75c/bu to 1160.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$6.20/t to $593.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract unchanged at €408.50;
  • Brent crude February down US$0.28 per barrel to $49.97;
  • Dow Jones index up 47 points to 30,046;
  • AUD weaker at $0.753;
  • CAD weaker at $1.278;
  • EUR firmer at $1.211.

International

  • Coronavirus vaccines are now into roll-out mode in the US after emergency approval. Shipments reportedly started moving out from warehouses early today.
  • We’re now 19 days from the end of the Brexit process, and the concerns about a no-deal event are looking more likely. Weekend talks there failed once again
  • Russian export tax speculation and rumours continue to flow around. Theories abound, but the latest on Saturday was a ~2200 ruble tax was rumoured, with a second step up if export pace exceeded quota.  The implementation date is also still in question, and will be a critical factor of uncertainty for early 2021 exports.
  • Weather maps are starting to look a bit wetter into the month end for central Russia with the last GFS runs showing up to an inch for some wheat areas.  Still dry further towards the Volga and South though.
  • Similarly, there are some better forecasts for northern Argentina this week with chances for a widespread inch and a half or so
  • Argentine wheat harvest was pegged at 53.5pc complete late last week by Bolsa, the Argentine Agricultural Exchange, reporting slightly better yields in recently cut areas but still predicting an overall crop under 17Mt in their estimate.
  • Southern Brazil also has some great rains on the maps for this week, and there’s a widespread event forecast into next week for more northern soybean areas
  • Hog futures will be launching in China on the Dalian Corn Exchange come the first week of Jan.

Australia

  • Aussie wheat and barley showed some strength again on the cash boards, wheat up $2-3/t across most port zones.
  • WA wheat in particular pushed up with stronger bids later Friday by some $7-8/t
  • Canola markets along the east coast finished the day down $3-4/t
  • Coastal rains in Qld are still supposed to bring a little more inland this week, but so far we’ve only seen a couple of mm anywhere west of Dalby
  • More regional wheat sales are being reported, with news wires catching wind of the Philippines tender – values reported in the low $260s per tonne landed.

 

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