Markets

Daily Market Wire 15 February 2021

Lachstock Consulting, February 15, 2021

Most markets firmed a  little on Friday, but Winnipeg canola March futures lifted C$26.3 with the front end squeeze.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US3.25 cents per bushel to 636.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 5.75c/bu to 616.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 0.25c/bu to 616;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1.25/t to €223.75/t;
  • Corn March contract down 2.25c/bu to 538.75c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 4.5c/bu to 1372c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$26.30/t to $730.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €2.75/t to €449.50.;
  • Brent crude April up US$1.29 per barrel to $62.43;
  • Dow Jones index up 27 points to 31,458;
  • US dollar index up 0.04 to 90.4
  • AUD firmer at $0.776;
  • CAD firmer at $1.269;
  • EUR weaker at $1.212

International

Macro markets continuing to watch for the upcoming US stimulus bill – but the biggest discussion later last week has shifted to the potential for inflation impacts from the stimulus, with more concerns being raised about whether the next bill may be “too much”

New export sales flashes had 116,000t of old crop corn to Guatemala and 195,000t of corn to Costa Rica of mixed seasons.

With a quieter end to the week going into the holiday, market speculation has focused in once again on the upcoming corn/bean acreage figures. There are wide-ranging ideas, but general figures being discussed to end the week were in the low 90s million acres of corn and high 80s of beans. However, it’s easy to find 5-7+ million acre differences in ideas.

Algeria’s OAIC is tendering for more March/April wheat, so there’s no holidays for cash traders.   As always it’s an optional origin tender, but markets will be watching for indications as to how much additional export sales appetite there is for French wheat and EU wheat in general.

Russian export tax worries are still in play as markets want to see how its implementation will affect them. Little new crop business was being reported to end the week. Old crop Russian wheat remains choppy as farmers are reluctant to accept the lower bids, discounted by the amount of the old season tax.

Winter kill worries across the US HRW belt regained prominence at the end of last week with this year’s polar vortex pushing across the southern Plains through the weekend and into Monday.  Snow cover has improved in some of these areas but there’s plenty of speculation about whether it will be enough to keep the crops insulated.  Most worries are concentrated on Kansas and the Panhandle regions, though there are also a few spots of concern further east with SRW.

Chinese New Year public holidays continue Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

The USDA outlook forum this week will include a focus on the USDA’s view of Chinese market impacts.  For those who wish to tune in this session will be online mid-morning Australia time on 19 February and is free to register/attend.

Australia

Australian planting intentions are possibly indicating more canola in parts of NSW after this last rain event hitting but growers are still a way from final decisions. ASX east coast wheat nearby futures recovered about $3/t on Friday. Weather maps taking a turn for the drier this week, with the WA rains mostly missing cropping areas.  Longer term maps starting to throw up another possible storm system on the east coast later this month.

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