Markets

Daily Market Wire 17 December 2021

Lachstock Consulting, December 17, 2021

US wheat markets gained up to 2pc overnight. ASX eastern fell anther 3pc.  Soybeans and corn gained 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US14.5 cents per bushel to 770.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 18.25c/bu to 803.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March up 17.5c/bu to 1026.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €0.25/t to €276;
  • Corn March contract up 5.5c/bu to 591.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans January contract up 14.75c/bu to 1277.25c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract up C$1.30/t to $1001/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract up €20/t to €722.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down A$10/t to $357/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 down $4.50/t to $361.50/t.

International

In other markets Black Sea wheat increased USD$1.50/t, meal was basically unchanged, soybean oil rose 2pc and palm oil increased MYR$88/t.

Export sales of US corn surged this week, driven by new sales to Mexico. The US banged out 1.95Mt, a marketing year high, along with 754,000t of new crop sales as well.

Overnight market wires were full of vague guesses as to why wheat found a bid today. The simple answer is demand. The US pushed out 650,000t of wheat, a marketing year high and well above the average trade guesstimate of 300,000t. A smattering of destinations shows the extent of the buying under the market which seems to consistently appear should the board fall.

China took 389kmt of US sorghum, an interesting sale given Aussie sorgo harvest will be just around the corner.

Pockets of weather “spot fires.”  It is windy and dry in the US belt and hard for me to get overly excited about this given the lack of correlation between pre-dormancy conditions and final yield. Northern Argentina and southern Brazil still have moisture deficits with their basis suggesting the struggle is real.

The Bank of England increase rates by 0.25pc while the EU central bank said it would be phasing out emergency bond buying.

Australia

Markets continued to weaken across the boards yesterday. Wheat was down another $10/t, canola was back another $20-30/t, having its biggest drop in months.

Trade markets on wheat, barley and canola were all very thin over the course of the day. Wheat was notably offer side only.

Harvest ban conditions will kick in place through South Australia today.

There is a clear run in WA and Victoria but southern NSW growers are set for some more light showers over the weekend that could cause further delays.

The export for December conditions to get rolled around We are starting to see some of the December shipments rolled into January. Barley shipments are looking to push 1Mt this month after an impressive 750,000t in November. Canola shipments stacking up again in December and January with 430,000t slated for each month on top of the 515,000t for November. Victoria and NSW are entering the fray with 180,000t in December and 140,000t in January.

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