Markets

Daily Market Wire 18 July 2022

Lachstock Consulting, July 18, 2022

Soybean oil gained 4pc, soybean meal eased 2pc. Brent crude and the Dow jones Industrials Average gained 2pc. French wheat fell almost 5pc and the US exchanges downward moves were mixed and smaller. Corn and soybeans settled almost unchanged.

 

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US19.5 cents per bushel to 794c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 11.5c/bu to 845.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.25c/bu to 919.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €14/t to €316.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract unchanged at $368.50/t;
  • Corn September contract up 2.75c/bu to 603.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 1.25c/bu to 1342.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C0.20/t to $843.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €6.50/t to €680/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$1/t to $415/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $2/t to $425/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.679.

 

International

While there were hopes for further progress in Ukraine-related talks this week, most are sceptical that a safe corridor could be established soon as ports would need to be de-mined and terminal infrastructure restored.

Total export sales of US wheat nearly quadrupled in the week ended 7 July, topping 1 million tonnes (Mt). Destination China accounted for a quarter of that.

Russian farmers have harvested almost 20Mt grain, the country’s agriculture ministry was reported as saying in a Telegram channel app. The harvest included 15.5Mt wheat and 3.5Mt barley, pace and yield are reportedly higher than previous year on some crops. Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR raised its 2022 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1.8Mt to 90.5Mt. It increased its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast by 2Mt to 44Mt.

Stratégie Grains cut all its forecasts for this year’s grain crops in the European Union, as it fine-tuned wheat and barley estimates as harvest progresses. It also flagged dry weather threatening corn yields. It pegged the EU wheat crop at 123.3Mt, down from 124.4Mt projected in June and below the revised 129.9Mt .harvested last year. For corn, the crop was seen falling to 65.4Mt, down from 66.8Mt seen last month and 69.7Mt last year. “Recurrent water shortages and hot weather in many production zones are adversely impacting yield potential,” it said.

France has harvested half its wheat crop, according to the country’s Ag Ministry, far ahead of the normal pace for mid-July. Hot, dry weather not only cut wheat yields but is allowing the harvest pace to rapidly advance also an estimated 64pc of soft wheat was in good or excellent condition, up from 63pc the previous week.

Heat in France will intensify this week. Temperatures could top 40 degrees in some areas, according to Meteo France. In the US, about a third of the corn-growing region is affected by drought, and surges of heat are expected in the western growing belt, a US Department of Agriculture forecast said.

Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat production estimate was lowered by 0.8Mt to 17.7Mt by the Rosario Grain Exchange amid a reduction in planted area due to dryness/drought.

China is rolling out a quota system to limit exports of phosphates in the second half of this year, Reuters reported. China appears to have issued export quotas for just over 3Mt of phosphates for the second half of this year, said Gavin Ju, China fertilizer analyst at CRU Group, citing information from about a dozen producers who have been informed by local governments since late June. That would mark a 45pc drop from China’s shipments of 5.5Mt in the same period a year ago. Although China has imposed export duties on fertilizers in the past, the latest measures mark its first use of inspection certificates and export quotas, analysts said.

Australia

Local markets ended last week a mixed bag. Current crop prices firmed slightly on Friday both up country and delivered port. Eastern Australian trade in deport stocks remains quiet as logistics are still a headache. Eastern Australian new crop values were unchanged to a buck softer.

Port congestion eased this week in Geelong, Geraldton and Kwinana but increased in Albany, Port Kembla and Portland. Twenty six vessels were at anchor and 9 were loading as at last Friday.

Logistics are also being hampered by rail lines out of commission. Demand for trucks has increased.

 

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