Facebook Twitter

Daily Market Wire 18 June 2018

by Lachstock Consulting, 18 June 2018

Lower for grains, mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down -2c to 499.5c,
  • Kansas wheat down -2.5c to 519.75c,
  • corn down -1.75c to 361.25c,
  • soybeans down -21.75c to 905.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola up 2.70$C to 520$C,
  • Matif canola down -2.25€ to 349.5€.
  • The Dow Jones down -84.83 to 25090.48,
  • Crude Oil down -2.51c to $US64.38 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.744c,
  • CAD down to 1.318c, (AUDCAD 0.981)
  • EUR down to 1.159c (AUDEUR 0.6417).

Wheat

Wheat futures settled lower to round out the week in a US21c/bu-ranging session, despite ongoing concerns for production in Australia and the Black Sea.

Implied volatility in July Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures went out at 31.5pc.

Wheat followed tariff-driven weakness in beans and corn to settle lower.

Russian spring wheat plantings prospects have not improved, with estimates calling for a 1.1 million hectare reduction from last year.

The global balance sheet in wheat still has bullish potential but cannot rally on its own without some support from corn.

Corn

Corn continued its grind down in a 12c/bu-ranging sessions, with the December contract making new yearly lows before bouncing back to settle with minor losses.

Corn felt the pinch from ongoing tariff negotiations and reasonable US crop conditions.

Mexico is considering placing import tariffs on US corn, which would have very negative consequences on future US demand.

The market is ignoring the tightening global balance sheet where European and Black Sea production potential continues to drift lower. The world corn market has a lot riding on perfect US yields and with no risk premium existent in futures prices, it appears that will need to correct soon enough.

Soybeans

Soybeans suffered a heavy sell-off as the US announced China tariffs that are expected to come into action on July 6. The tariff discussions are said to be ongoing, but the language is getting stronger and stronger. China responded with their own list of tariffs which includes beans.

Premiums in Brazil increased, while US futures sold-off in a session trading range of US26c/bu.

Soymeal was down US$4.30/t, while soy oil was down 64 points.

Politics continues to dominate the US beans market so until we get some clarification on that, we are destined to drift lower.

The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) had the bean position short 11,400 contracts from 36,500 contracts long the week earlier.

Canola

Canola managed a higher close in Winnipeg, but lower in Matif.

The Canadian dollar fell sharply to levels not seen since last July.

This, combined with speculation of further Canadian export business resulting from a US China trade war, helped to support Winnipeg futures.

Australia

Aussie markets were firmer last week, thanks to a weaker currency and lower than expected rainfall in NSW.

Consumptive buying continued to drive price support in old and new crop.

Over the weekend some scattered showers in NSW and Vic brought 5-15mm, but the 8-day forecast lacks anything that will have a significant impact on NSW production.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

Reader's Comments


Comment

Leave a comment

(First Name and Surname Required) - read our Comment Policy

(Required)

(Required)