Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 April 2021

Lachstock Consulting, April 19, 2021

US soybean markets gained 1pc. Corn fell almost 1pc. Other markets saw mixed smaller moves.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US1.25c/bu to 652.5c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 1.5c/bu to 609.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 1c/bu to 664.25c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.75/t to €217.75/t ;
  • Corn May contract down 4.5c/bu to 585.5;
  • Soybeans May contract up 15c/bu to 1433.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$4.10/t to $833.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €1.25/t to €509.25/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.1 to 91.5;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.772;
  • CAD firmer at $1.250;
  • EUR firmer at $1.198;
  • ASX wheat May contract up $2.50/t to $291/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $4.40/t to $304.40/t.

International

Politics remaining hot in the Black Sea, with Russia expelling a Ukrainian diplomat over the weekend and retaliation by the Ukrainian government is expected to start this week.  Ag logistics still not directly impacted by the tense political situation, but some background concerns remain about the impacts if the situation does turn more violent.

Cryptocurrencies have crashed hard over the weekend with talk of more regulation in the US and bans in Turkey both spooking markets.  It is still amazing to see how much the acceptance of cryptocurrencies has increased in the markets.

Crop progress figures are due to be released tomorrow in the US.  In the meantime more rains over the weekend have further boosted soil moisture conditions in much of the HRW belt and, although there are some background worries about frost potential at the start of this week, overall sentiment continues to trend up as to the crop potential.

Argentine strikes hit again, temporarily, on Friday. There with several crush plants briefly shutdown.  Operations are back up and running, with talks ongoing, but markets are questioning if we’ll see follow up strikes to come.

Friday’s CFTC fund positions report confirmed new increases in overall fund length on corn (and new highs for the year) though the reduction in length on beans is likely no longer accurate, because CFTC data from last Tuesday don’t include the effects of the rally later last week.

Black Sea planting of spring crops is starting to pick up pace after previous cold weather had slowed fieldwork. Government figures in Ukraine up to 1.5 million ha, which would account for about 20 per cent of estimated total.

Chinese pork production was reported up 32 per cent year-on-year Q1 by the government on Friday. Hog numbers also were reported up nearly 30pc despite the ASF culls.

The extended weather maps for South America look very dry. Southern and central Brazil are forecast almost entirely dry across the two week runs.

Cool and moist weather still is on the cards for most of the Black Sea this week though, with a fairly widespread inch forecast across winter wheat areas.

Australia

Friday’s local markets saw a fairly quiet end of the week with a rally on the boards after the global moves but fairly quiet overall trade.

Mice infestation impacts remaining in focus across the east coast with reports of trucks getting rejected for contamination.

The force majeure claim situation in WA also getting more focus as the trade works to sort out the logistics.  Logistics on the east coast also remaining tight with the rail delays and tight truck availability.

BOM maps still bringing a nice dry week for most of the country, although there are some chances of rains flirting around on the extended run maps into later next week.

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