Markets

Daily Market Wire 19 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 19, 2022

Wheat firmed a little.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US14.75 cents per bushel to 859.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 9c/bu to 935.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 10c/bu to 938.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1.50/t to €333.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.75/t to $319.75/t;
  • Corn December contract down 0.25c/bu to 677.25/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 3c/bu to 1448.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was up C$4.10/t to $792.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down  €4.50/t to €577.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$2/t to $416/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$5/t to $310/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.669.

International

Presidents Putin and Tayyip Erdogan agreed to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of the “grain deal” during their Friday meeting on the margins of the SCO summit.

According to Refinitiv Commodities Research insufficient rainfall in Argentina and potential frost damage across the central Pampas, will impact 2022/23 wheat production cutting its forecast 200,000t, to 17.8Mt (22.1Mt previous year). Saying that despite some much needed precipitation in a few eastern areas over the past fortnight, the total amount was far from sufficient to alleviate ongoing moisture stress.

Statistics Canada’s latest model-based principal field crop estimates put 2022/23 all wheat production forecast up 100,000t, at 34.7m (22.3m previous year). Forecast barley production increased by 100,000t, to 9.4Mt (7.0Mt), maize up by 100,000t, to 14.8Mt (14.0Mt). Canola crop estimate was trimmed by 400,000t, to 19.1Mt (13.8Mt)

Stratégie Grains revised 2022/23 total wheat production forecast 800kt higher, at 131.0Mt (137.5Mt previous year), barley output seen 1.0Mt higher than previously, at 51.0Mt (51.8Mt). Rains from mid-August arrived too late to improve the maize outlook, with early harvest results confirming very poor yields. Including cuts for France, Romania, Germany and Hungary, forecast production down by 2.5Mt, to 52.9Mt (70.0Mt)

Jordon’s state grains buyer purchased 60,000t feed barley at $316/t c&f, Apr shipment. Separately, seeks (21 Sep) a further 120,000t.

Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) seeks 535,000t milling wheat, Nov-Feb delivery

Major U.S. railroads and unions have reached a tentative agreement giving them better pay and improved working conditions, President Joe Biden said in a statement on Thursday. Biden said, “The agreement is also a victory for railway companies who will be able to retain and recruit more workers for an industry that will continue to be part of the backbone of the American economy for decades to come.” A Department of Labor official confirmed a deal “that balances the needs of workers, businesses, and our nation’s economy” was reached in the early hours of the morning on Thursday after 20 consecutive hours of negotiations between rail companies and union negotiator.

Australia

Local markets found some life and were stronger on the boards through new crop. Wheat was up $5-6/t over the day then things started to get heavy as the day came to a close with grower selling activity picking up. Barley was also stronger on the boards whilst canola values were largely unchanged and have been relatively flat for the week

Significant 24-hour rainfall totals have been received across NSW with areas in the Murrumbidgee, Central West and Northern NSW copping 25-50mm and in some areas 50-100mm.

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