Markets

Daily Market Wire 2 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 2, 2021

The oilseeds markets and corn fell at least 2pc on Friday.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US1.25c/bu to 703.75c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 1.25c/bu to 673.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 13.25c/bu to 904.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €2.50/t to €223.25/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 11c/bu to 547c;
  • Soybeans September contract down 29.75c/bu to 1355.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was down C$36.20/t to $842.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €10.25/t to €521.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 92.1;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.734;
  • CAD weaker at $1.248;
  • EUR weaker at $1.187;
  • ASX wheat September contract up $6/t to A$322/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $3/t to $318/t.

International

Grain markets traded off through Friday’s session, though wheat did recover slightly later in the day for smaller losses – Chicago ended down 1.5¢, KC-1 1/4¢, Minny -13 3/4¢, and Matif ended up 2.5€ on the earlier close.  Corn was down 11¢ and beans -29 3/4¢ (Matif -10.25€, Winnipeg -$36.2).  Macro markets saw equities trade off slightly, with the DOW down 149 points, and crude picking up a quarter to $73.9 WTI / $75.4 Brent.  The AUD is currently around 73.4¢, the CAD $1.248, and the EUR $1.186.

USDA WASDE and crop production reports will publish 12 August, a week from this Thursday.

With global markets still cautious about the resurgence in COVID-19 cases, expiry this weekend of a US eviction moratorium raised concerns about the shock to the economic recovery of evictions for those who did not pay rent during the last year.

Weather maps for the US Corn Belt are very dry for this week and early next, although two-week maps are bringing back a more generalized set of rain storms.  Cooler temperatures remain forecast for the eastern Corn Belt.

Algeria’s OAIC to start the week is tendering for wheat to fill September slots.

Egypt’s GASC is also reportedly tendering again tonight, shipment late Sep/early Oct.

Some Chinese fertilizer companies are suspending exports of phosphate and urea as the government tries to control prices for fertilizers in the domestic market.

High temperatures in the Black Sea region and dry forecasts have continued to encourage rapid winter cereals harvest. Corn areas are reporting more stress from the heat and a few more yield ideas are coming back down.

Russian government data pegged wheat harvest area completed-to-date at 12.4 million ha as of Friday.

The USDA Risk Management Agency actuarial figures were updated late last week and finally released. Indemnities as of 26 July were up to US$33.9million in North Dakota (+50pc from prior) and $22.3 million in Montana (+100% from prior) as drought impacts continued to be appraised.  With an estimated 1% of the Montana spring wheat crop appraised and written off in the six days since then, and 0.5pc in North Dakota, losses are expected to continue to jump.

Spring wheat harvest yields continue to disappoint, although test weight is generally reported to be slightly better than some of the earlier cuts. Protein remains high.

The IGC cut their global wheat production estimate to 788 million tonnes (Mt) from 789Mt prior month, and upped corn by 1Mt to 1202Mt.

Australia

Local grains markets traded a fiver firmer yesterday, with liquidity continuing to dribble out and a little more new crop selling reported in WA.

WA rains continued to add moisture across the wheat belt yesterday, with another 5-15 mm reported across most of the area.

 

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