Weather markets saw corn futures lift around 5pc, oilseeds 4pc and wheat 3pc.
- Chicago wheat September contract up US22.75c/bu to 665.75c;
- Kansas wheat September contract up 21.5c/bu to 615.75c;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 10c/bu to 766.25c;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €3.75/t to €208.25/t;
- Corn September contract up 29c/bu to 577.5c;
- Soybeans September contract up 58.75c/bu to 1317.25c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract up C$27.60/t to $694;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract up €11.25/t to €488.25/t;
- US dollar index up 0.4 to 92.3;
- AUD weaker at US$0.749;
- CAD weaker at $1.245;
- EUR weaker at $1.187;
- ASX wheat July contract down A$0.10 to $296.90/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $4.10/t to $301.90/t.
Big swings continued with a bounce back across ags on Friday’s session – talk of discount buying on the dip, pre-weekend short closing, and some drier turns to corn belt weather maps all in the mix. September Chicago wheat ended up 22 3/4¢, KC +21.5¢, Minny up a dime, and Matif +3.75€ on the earlier close. Corn was up 29¢ and beans +58 3/4¢ (with Matif +11.25€, Winnipeg +$27.6). Macros saw crude up about half a buck to $71.6 WTI / $73.5 Brent and the DOW down 533 points. The USD rally has continued, with the dxy hitting 92.3 – taking the AUD back under seventy five (74.9¢), the CAD $1.245, and the EUR $1.187.
Options expiry will occur next Friday and is one to watch given the recent large price moves and outstanding positions.
Iowa rains came in a little disappointing for some over the weekend with northern parts of the state, and southern Minnesota, seeing less than forecast. Latest forecasts maps are calling for a solid 2-3″ across the entire eastern corn belt this week though, from central Arkansas to northern Illinois, and from western Missouri over to the eastern side of Ohio.
Risks of flooding in the Delta from the storm may cause interference in barge movements again.
Spring wheat/canola weather maps are still trending dry, with only some light chances for central Alberta this week. Weekend rains did see half an inch or so in parts of central/western North Dakota, though the more northern wheat areas that still have some potential saw less accumulation.
Chinese government interference in ag markets continues to make headlines, with reports out there that they will make changes to how published price indexes work. The stated intention being to reduce the risks of manipulation, while cynics see it is another attempt to clamp down on price rallies.
Market chatter is suggesting that Chinese trading houses bought half a million tons of US soybeans through the dip last week. While there are no flash sales reports yet, markets will be looking for some confirmation into this week.
US winter wheat harvest continues to push along. Though there should be some delays coming for SRW with this weather, HRW yields and quality still are running fairly well. Some wider-ranging protein figures coming off but, overall, protein appears to be slightly below average thus far.
The French Ministry of Agriculture wheat crop rating is 81pc good-to-excellent, no change from prior although more delays were reported in crop development/maturity with the recent weather.
Similarly, Black Sea harvest is just kicking off in Ukraine. Some early barley was cut last week but general delays are stopping most field work after the recent rains. It is believed they will be able to get moving again mid-week.
Updated Russian export tax (official) levels hit US$38.10/t. The published index used for calculating the tax has lifted to $257.50/t as of Friday though, up from $240s the week prior.
Rains across WA pushing over an inch for many so far into the weekend – and forecast to continue through today for the inland wheat belt
Latest weather map runs are sending most of the system south of the coast in SA, though chances of 15-20mm across the EP – and a likely 20+ mm for central NSW off the storm moving through there today.
The weaker AUD continuing to support ag markets, trading under 75¢ – and now with a stronger board behind today’s open.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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