The situation in the Black Sea is horrific to say the least and is getting worse, not better.  While it’s accepted that Russian wheat will bleed out, the size of the program is the issue. Additionally, cuts to Ukrainian wheat and corn in particular are a moving debate. The reality is the war has lasted longer than the market predicted early on – infrastructure damage is impossible to predict, but we have to assume it is meaningful.

On the weather front, after a long period of close to no rain, Argentina is now getting too much through its harvest window. Central and eastern Europe are getting a little dry, and Ukraine through to Belarus is also in need of a drink. On the flip side, there is great rainfall forecast for the US growing areas.

Australia

Local markets remained relatively steady towards the back end of last week. Barley values along the east coast continue to firm, with Downs feedgrains stronger over the week. South Australian values for wheat and barley took a breather and the liquidity was limited, while canola bids softened.

Growers are now focused on getting ready for planting, and some have already started.

The latest eight-day Bureau of Meteorology forecast looks promising for 10-25 millimetres of rain in the Western Australian wheatbelt. Northern New South Wales and southern Queensland are forecast to receive 25-50mm.