Friday’s Australian wheat futures firmed 2pc. Chicago wheat led offshore price 2 percent firmer. Corn and soybeans firmed 1 percent.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat up US13.75c/bu to 608.75c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat up 7.25c/bu to 612.25c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 9.75c/bu to 678c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 up €1.25/t to €223/t;
- Corn December 2024 up 6.25c/bu to 466.25c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 up 11.75c/bu to 1161c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$1.30/t to $637.90/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €0.75/t to €455.50/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat up A$6.50/t to $336.50/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat up A$8/t to A$360/t
- ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$309.60/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$317.50/t
- AUD dollar down 4 points to US$0.6417.
International
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon lowered its 2024 Russian wheat crop by 1Mt to 93Mt, the first reduction this season, reflecting deteriorating crop conditions in the south.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 17 April, the 2023-24 maize harvest was 17pc complete (32pc previous year), with rainfall hampering progress. Crop conditions were rated 64pc fair/excellent (64pc previous week, 46pc previous year). Forecast production was maintained at 49.5Mt. Soybean harvest was estimated 14pc complete (36pc previous year). Soy crop conditions were rated 77pc fair/excellent (78pc, 37pc). Soy production forecast was unchanged, at 51Mt. Wheat area for crop 2024-25 was pegged at 5.9m ha (5.9m previous year).
FranceAgriMer reported that as at 15 April 2024-25 French common wheat crop condition was rated 64pc good/excellent (64pc previous week, 93pc previous year) and durum condition was rated 70pc (70pc, 90pc). Winter barley condition was rated 67pc good/excellent (67pc, 91pc) and spring barley 63pc (60pc, 95pc). Planting of 2024-25 spring barley was seen 98pc complete (100pc previous year) and maize 12pc (17pc).
China’s Ag. Ministry reported it expects a bumper grains and oilseeds harvests in 2024-25, reflecting an increase in area planted to winter wheat and rapeseed, with crop development reportedly good.
The US House of Representatives on Saturday voted to approve a US$95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan after over months of objections from Republicans on the far right. The legislation includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian aid for civilians in conflict zones, including Gaza, and $8 billion for the Indo-Pacific region.
US private exporters reported sales of 216,500t corn to Mexico. Of the total, 23,000t is for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year and 193,500t for 2024-25. It reported sales of 121,500t soybeans to unknown destinations with 13,500t for the 2023-24 marketing year and 108,000t for 2024-25.
Australia
Local markets were firm, probably more driven by Australian dollar moves than anything else. The fob price of Russian wheat is still the most relevant and transparent tool to establish export parity for Australian wheat, so any movement in the AUD has been the driver for price changes. We remain impressed with the export pace for the major grains and note that there are only small amounts to do to hit our full year targets.
Markets were understandably thin into the close of last week with offshore markets and rainfall outlooks keeping sellers quiet.
Anzac Day seems to no longer be the planting deadline it used to be. Many producers choose to focus on getting seed in the ground prior to May, regardless of the conditions.
The 24/25 winter crop year is all about the “haves” and the “have nots”. Queensland keeps getting rainfall and WA/SA has little to no moisture forecast for the next 15 days. Clear skies and no forecast rain is helping put the crop in the ground unhindered. Although not at panic stations yet, the forecast is not providing any relief for those who are still hunting moisture. Parts of the Riverina, in particular, are looking for the next drink.
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