US markets were closed overnight for the Martin Luther King holiday, but European markets closed higher in Monday trading.

Russian export licenses have continue to hit the headlines, and a rally in Black Sea prices has done much to pull back exports already. Nothing formal has been published yet, but the focus of the talk is on a system that would effectively limit exports to companies connected to government. Reuters has suggested that Egypt’s GASC will readjust payment terms to move payments forward to delivery from the current half-year delay. Cold conditions across parts of the US Midwest and southern plains have been mostly ignored. Longer-term spring outlooks there are forecasting above-average precipitation in western Kansas for the spring after a relatively dry winter period, but the flipside is that a dry spring for the eastern cornbelt would be of serious concern.

Barley markets continue to look towards Saudi Arabia and its government did not tender last week. This may have closed the window for first-half March arrival, and forced some reconsideration of demand estimates. However, the market will react bullishly if Saudi Arabia steps into the market this week to fill first-half March demand.

Darling Downs markets eased at the end of last week, with spot demand now covered, and more transshipped grain on the way from interstate. Lachstock is flagging an additional three boats loading ex-WA in the next two weeks for Brisbane arrival. Fundamentals continue to support this ongoing grain flow, but with the easing of prices in the east coast, margins have been squeezed. In the short term, the hit of interstate wheat is bearish to the spot market, but prices going down raise questions about how wide the spread needs to be to move more grain later in the season.