Daily market wire 22 November 2017

Lachstock Consulting November 22, 2017

Overnight futures markets:

Mixed for grains, lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was up 2.75c to 424.75c,
  • Kansas wheat up 4.25c to 420.25c,
  • Corn unchanged at 345c,
  • Soybean down -1c to 989c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -0.90$C to 515.1$C
  • Matif canola up 0.5€ to 375.75€.
  • The Dow Jones up 160.50 to 23590.83,
  • Crude Oil up 0.36c to 56.44c,
  • AUD up to 0.757c,
  • CAD down to 1.278c, (AUDCAD 0.968)
  • EUR up to 1.173c (AUDEUR 0.645).


Wheat found support from downgrades to the winter wheat crop and concerns over Russia’s ability to get its crop into the wheat export channel. The USDA rated next year’s wheat crop at 52per cent (pc) good to excellent, which is 2pc lower than their last forecast. In Russia, logistic aside the attention has now turned to their ability to issue radiation certificates (free from), to ensure opening of Letters of Credit and payment. This story has not been a focus, despite being first reported last week, but it has certainly encouraged some mild short covering today. Which suggests it’s either a real concern, or that the market is very bored and over analysing it. Russian cash pricing was slightly lower with 12.5pc protein wheat trading at US$191.50/t free on board.


Soybeans futures closed a fraction lower in a quiet session that featured a US5c/bu range. Meal was down 20c/t, while oil was 11 cents/pound higher, recovering slightly after the sell off yesterday led by India’s palm oil import tax announcement. South American weather is not posing any major threats for now, but buyers and sellers are both reluctant, leading to flat trade.


Canola fractions lower in a quiet session, following the flat nature of outside market trade.


Corn finished unchanged in another low range session. The range was 3c/bu as it continues to stagnate with heavy stocks pushing volatility lower. December Implied volatility went out at 14.61pc; at these levels the only people making money are the brokers. The USDA called harvest progress 90pc complete, which is lagging last year given their late start and weather delays.
Corn has held onto last week’s rallies as speculation on Chinese buying combined with dryness concerns in Argentina to make some shorts uneasy. In reality, we are yet to get confirmation of the Chinese purchases and Argentina has a long growing season ahead. Hard to see it rallying much further before the weight of US stocks affects futures.


The Aussie forecast is looking at 15-25mm of rainfall in parts of NSW, Vic and SA. This will have the most effect on the Mallee and Wimmera in Victoria and Eyre Peninsula in South Australia. It could lead to quality issues associated with sprouting given the in-crop moisture the crop has already seen. Cash prices have been a touch softer, in light trade. Growers remain reluctant sellers until they have better oversight of quality and yield.


Source: Lachstock Consulting




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