US wheat and corn futures closed lower in overnight trading, but oilseed and European wheat markets strengthened.
Last night’s cold snap across the northern plains and upper Midwest has not created significant concerns for the dormant winter-wheat crop, with extreme cold staying further north of most wheat areas. Snow cover has reduced significantly across parts of western Nebraska and Kansas, reducing the level of protection there in the event of any upcoming cold snaps. There are still no significant concerns in the Russian and Ukrainian crops. Russian exports were back in the news again, but this time for 2020. Latest updates reflect apparent intentions by the Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture to track weekly export data, similar to US export sales, but not publicly available, in what appears to be an attempt to better regulate its export flows. Cash offers keep pulling higher, as the impacts of tighter stocks and more expensive logistics hit.
Helped by the dry and fast bean harvest, safrinha corn plantings are beginning to pick up pace in Brazil, with estimates in Parana that seeding is up to 17 per cent complete. The bean harvest continues to hit new records, and has hit 15pc complete in Parana, where not all bean area will be planted straight back to corn. The Rosario Grain exchange in Argentina was also out with some crop estimate cutbacks, estimating that in Santa Fe alone, some 220,000 tonnes of bean production had been lost from the flooding. Weather permitting, some could be replanted, albeit it with far lower yield potential. Following Informa’s estimates, Farm Futures published survey-based figures that called for 36.5 million hectares of corn and 34.2m ha of beans. Farm Futures’ bean area reduction is greater than that forecast by Informa, and more in line with anecdotal estimates.
Source: Lachstock Consulting