Market moves are the nett of two trading days and most traded lower.
- Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US15.75 cents per bushel to 682c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 19.5c/bu to 801c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 8.25c/bu to 840.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December 2023 down €1.25/t to €246.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat December 2023 up US$0.25/t to $290.25/t;
- Corn July 2023 contract down 7.5c/bu to 607.75c/bu;
- Soybeans July 2023 contract down 31.5c/bu to 1417.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract down C$3.50/t to $726.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract down €20.50/t to €437/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$0.50/t to $392.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$340.20/t;
- AUD dollar eased 65 points, approx 1pc, to US$0.6626
Newswires reported Russia saw no progress being made to meet its demands regarding the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative following talks between its Foreign Minister and the UN Secretary General who was said to be aiming for a packaged approach to agricultural product exports from Ukraine and Russia.
StatsCan Acreage Estimates Report will be released today, with the market expecting a 1 million acres (Mac) increase for wheat to 26.3Mac with the range of estimates between 25.5Mac to 27Mac (25.4Mac last season). Spring wheat acres are expected to increase 0.9Mac to 18.9Mac.
World Weather Inc reported much needed rain was forecast for HRW wheat areas of the Great Plains this week, though limited rain was expected in the driest southwestern areas of the region. Temperatures would trend cooler than normal across the Corn Belt and Plains for the next 10 days. It also reported some frost and freeze damage may have occurred in Nebraska, northern Kansas and north-eastern Colorado on Sunday morning when temperatures fell to the upper teens and lower 20s Fahrenheit. Impacts are expected to be limited, but it will take several days to assess any damage.
Wires reported the Russian Grain Union head saying Russia could export a record 60Mt of grain in 2022-23, including 50Mt of wheat, noting Black Sea Grain Initiative had not yielded anything positive for Russia or helped facilitate supplies to the global market.
US private exporters reported the cancellation of 2022-23 marketing year sales of 327,000 t corn for delivery to China.
EU Monitoring Agricultural Resources System (MARS) pegged the average soft-wheat yield at 5.96 t/ha in 2023-24, down slightly from the March estimate. MARS also lowered the barley yield estimate. The report noted that fair conditions have been seen across most of Europe. Surplus rainfall in large parts of northern Europe was welcomed after a dry February but caused planting delays for spring barley. In northern Italy and Spain, irrigation concerns amid low water reserves are leading to a substantial reduction in planted area and/or shifts from rice or maize to more drought-tolerant crops. Some rain-fed areas might not be sown at all.
Agricultural market information services provider APK-Inform forecast Ukraine would produce 22.9Mt of corn and 16.2Mt of wheat in 2023-24, both of which would be down around 14pc. It projected barley production at 5.2Mt. It forecast Ukraine corn exports 23pc lower, to 18.2Mt, and wheat 37pc lower, at 8.8Mt. It forecast the 2023 sunflower seed harvest would increase 15pc to 12.8Mt, reflecting an increase in area planted.
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicted 2023-24 wheat area in Argentina expanding to 6.7 million hectares, 600,000ha higher than previous year and 4.7pc higher than the average for the previous five seasons.
Tunisia will tender on 26 April for up to 75,000t optional origin milling wheat in three 25,000t consignments for June-July shipment.
Monday’s local markets were quiet leading into Anzac Day. Bids were largely unchanged and liquidity was quiet. Growers are well and truly on the front foot this year with planting well underway across the country this Anzac Day, the traditional date growers expect to begin sowing. Growers would like to see some more rain over the next 10-15 days though to keep things humming along.
The 8-day forecast has picked up some heavier totals expected for SA and Vic with 5-25mm now expected for most winter cropping regions. NSW is also looking at some heavier totals, with a widespread 10-50mm on the forecast which will push further into northern NSW where it is needed. The Queensland forecast is looking relatively dry with less than 10mm expected in the south and less than 5mm in CQ.
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