Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 April 2022

Lachstock Consulting, April 27, 2022

Wheat and canola prices made solid gains. Soybean oil gained 3pc, soybean meal eased 2pc. In macro markets crude oil gained 2pc, the Dow eased 2pc and the US dollar continued to strengthen.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US22.5cents per bushel to 1095c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 11.50c/bu to 1164.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 10.5c/bu to 1188c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €7.50/t to €374.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $4.25/t to $362.50/t;
  • Corn July contract up 3.5c/bu to 801.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract down 3.5c/bu to 1671.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$26/t to $1107.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €22/t to €856.50/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$5.50 to $418.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $0.80/t to $425.30/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.712.

International

US conditions dominated the headlines today with the HRW crop going from bad to worse. Additionally, the market is focused on the prevent-plant acres in the spring wheat areas given the insurance payout is circa $9.19/bu and a very wet two weeks on the forecast. Make no mistake, this is priced in, particularly in HRW with massive premiums priced in to relative value vs other exporters. Price is doing the work but it doesn’t preclude the US becoming even more of an island.

Statistics Canada published a big increase in projected wheat area this year, 25 million acres (Mac) compared with the 24.15Mac trade guess and 23.549Mac last year.

Wheat-corn spreads ratcheted out again yesterday, closing at 343.5usc/bu for December. South American corn offers are keeping the world market in check but it’s hard to see if that can last. Safrinha corn is taking a hit from a lack of moisture and the full growing season is in front of the US farmer.

Odesa is clearly under threat which would be a significant shift in the potential outcome of the Russia/Ukraine war. While the recent air strikes have hit homes the risk to the port being damaged has significantly increased.

Australia

Liquidity in local markets picked up yesterday with stronger values across the board for current crop. We saw more trading activity in depots across the country for wheat, barley and canola.

Sowing activity is ramping up across most areas into good moisture. We are hearing reports from growers through the Victorian region that large percentage of the canola is in the ground and they are now moving onto pulses and early wheat varieties.

Congestion, weather and short-weeks all are causing some delays on Mar-April shipments, although congestion is starting to get back under control in some ports. Port Lincoln has dropped from 13 days to 3, with most SA ports back in the range of normal. Wallaroo has jumped from 1 day to 13 days, but it is a small port. WA ports remain pretty steady; Kwinana 13 days, Albany 5 and Esperance 7 days. Victorian ports are running at around 10 days and NSW two weeks.

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