Daily Market Wire 2 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 2, 2018

Higher for grains and mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat up 0.5c to 509.5c
  • Kansas wheat up 0.25c to 511.5c
  • corn up 9.5c to 365.75c
  • soybeans up 12.25c to 857.75c
  • Winnipeg canola down -2.70$C to 494.6$C
  • Matif canola up 2.5€ to 375€
  • Dow Jones up 192.9 to 26651.21
  • Crude Oil up 2.05c to $US75.3 per barrel
  • AUD down to 0.722c
  • CAD up to .78c (AUDCAD 0.925)
  • EUR down to 1.157c (AUDEUR 0.623)


Beans were higher, as the market forgot last week’s increase in old crop US stocks. Instead focusing on a new NAFTA agreement, which combined with US harvest delays and a 2.6% rally in Crude oil to panic shorts. Weekly exports came in at 591kmt in beans. Soymeal was up $4.80 per tonne and soy oil was up 32 points. The US bean harvest is 23% done, up 9% since last week. Conditions were unchanged at 58% good to excellent.


Canola was caught between vegoil strength, NAFTA progress and currency fluctuations. Matif futures posted strong gains, while Canadian futures were held back by their higher dollar.


Corn followed similar price action and fundamental drivers to beans. The NAFTA progression is not likely to make a huge change to US stocks, but it does highlight the vulnerability of being short at these levels. Crop progress had corn harvest at 26% done, up 10% on last week. Conditions were unchanged at 69% good to excellent.


Wheat was a follower today trading a 10-cent range then finishing fractions higher. It was a low volume session with unconvincing technicals, highlighting the lack of direction we face until the Russian stocks reduce and their price increases. Implied vol in Dec SRW finished at 20.8%. Matif wheat was down .25€ to 201.25€ and Black Sea wheat was up 0.5 to $250 US Fob. Algeria are considering a change in their wheat purchase restrictions which would enable Russian imports. A delegation has been in Russia over the last few days, discussing this scenario. Otherwise there is nothing new for wheat, we need to see a sharp demand increase if US wheat is going to supply the wheat needed to satisfy some of the more bullish balance sheets.


Aussie markets were quiet yesterday with buyers and sellers sitting back, quantifying the benefits of WA/NSW rainfall forecast and offsetting this with frost damage in Vic over the weekend. Given that we are pricing off WA execution and the export market is not competitive it suggests a cap in East Coast pricing for now. The 8-day forecast is unchanged for WA with 15+ mm expected for central and southern cropping regions. NSW has improved with 15-25 mm expected across central and northern regions. This will not relieve winter crops, but it should boost summer crop moisture profiles and take the urgency out of nearby cash markets.




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