Markets

Daily market wire 28 March 2018

Lachstock Consulting, March 28, 2018

Overnight futures markets

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down -5c to 466.5c,
  • Kansas wheat down -4.25c to 483.5c,
  • Corn unchanged at 382.5c,
  • Soybean down -6.25c to 1030.25c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -0.19$C to 527.6$C,
  • Matif canola up 1.75€ to 347.5€.
  • The Dow Jones down -366.07 to 23836.52,
  • Crude Oil down -0.78c to $US64.76 per barrel,
  • AUD down to 0.767c,
  • CAD up to 1.289c, (AUDCAD 0.989)
  • EUR down to 1.239c (AUDEUR 0.619). 

Wheat

Weather conditions in the US have improved slightly for winter wheats, with small showers (10-15mm) reaching approximately 30 per cent of parched Hard Red Winter wheat crops in Kansas and Texas. We need to see a lot more rainfall to justify bearish price action and enable the crop to reach the USDA’s proposed figures.

State conditions were out yesterday, with ratings for Kansas up 2pc and Texas up 4pc good-to-excellent. The market is expecting the USDA to peg US March 1 stocks at 1498 million bushels, and all-wheat planted acres at 46.3 million acres.

Corn

Corn finished unchanged, in a quiet session that featured a 4-c/bu range.

Moisture in the corn-belt has been reasonable and could weigh on sentiment once the report is out of the way.  The impact of this on the corn:bean planting relationship will be difficult to determine, given that a wet delta will delay corn planting and favour beans.

The market is expecting the USDA to put March 1 stocks at 8,703 million bushels and planted area at 89.4 million acres.

Soybeans

Soybeans were under pressure ahead of the USDA report tonight, with Argy weather improving slightly.

The weekly forecast is calling for 10-20 mm in southern-central areas; this seems to be an overreaction considering that this has been a very dry March for the southern parts of the country. End-of-month and -quarter profit taking, combined with technical weakness to add pressure today.

Soymeal was down US$2.70 per tonne, while soy oil was up 13 points. The market expects the USDA to put Mar stocks at 2,030 million bushels and planted area at 91 million acres.

Canola

Canola was fractions higher in old crop, but finishing in the red for new crop. The canola market remains quiet, continuing to be a follower, due to its limited demand profile, relevant to stocks.

Australia

Aussie markets remained well bid yesterday for wheat and barley, despite lower futures and a stronger currency.

East Coast wheat has become completely detached from CBOT as dryness concerns build, with very little old crop grower selling prompting some consumer coverage.

The 8-day forecast remains very dry, so we expect to see continued strength, unless some moisture appears.

Barley remained strong, as it should, considering that Australia is poised to completely run out before the end of year. The new crop barley balance sheet is very tight locally and globally, which puts a lot of pressure on average new crop production. Any deviation lower than this or building concerns could see new crop prices increase to similar levels to old crop.

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