Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 October 2019

Lachstock Consulting, October 28, 2019
Futures markets were mixed on Friday.
  • Chicago wheat December contract up 1.75 cents per bushel to 517.75c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 3.25c to 422.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 3.25c to 536.75c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1 to €181;
  • Corn December contract unchanged at 386.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract down 13c to 920.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract down C$0.40 to $463.40
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €1.25 to €381;
  • Brent crude December contract up $0.35 to $62.02;
  • Dow Jones index up 152.53 points to 26958.06 points;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6822;
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3060;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.1080;

Markets mixed on Friday night as the push-pull between strong global values and a futures market that is searching for the next reason to keep trading higher.

Argentine politics significant

A major input to the wider grain markets was the Argentinian election which went to the polls on Sunday.

The ramifications to global trade flows could be significant given the ongoing changes in regulation in recent years.

Ag exports have been the balancing item in an economy that has, to say the least, had its challenges.

Argentine president Mauricio Macri in 2015 was elected on a platform of reduced agricultural taxes, cutting government spending and ultimately reducing the deficit.

Roll forward a few years and Macri had to back flip on this promise by imposing a “temporary” tax on exports as the IMF put the screws on debt recovery.

There was then a bunch of cuts/new taxes plus an eye-watering loan from the IMF which had a laundry list of terms attached – a jurisdictional equivalent of voluntary administration.

So what does the future hold?

Many believe that whoever takes the reins will have to increase export tax which in part explains the aggressive nature of the offers to date as the trade tries to clear inventory as fast as they can.

Australia

The week kicks off and the weather maps align for a change with Australia’s east coast forecast to receive upwards of 50mm in Queensland Western Downs region.

Does this get growers excited to start a sorghum plant?

Some areas have little moisture which may still limit planting, however 100-150mm would see a broad-brushed grower response.

While the rain maybe too late for parts of NSW, some of the later crops through the Riverina will benefit with a drink. Widespread rain for Victoria would most certainly consolidate the crop and set for a very kind finish.

Markets finished the week softer yet again, ASX east coast wheat settled $342/t and barley $279/t.

Feed grain markets in the north were relatively flat to a touch softer on the bid side over the week.

Canola markets continued to soften a tad over the week with track Port Kembla fair value $630-635/t range on the grower boards while trade markets were a fraction higher.

 

 

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