For the first time in two weeks, we didn’t see a new USDA flash sale. Markets are more aggressively talking up row crop yields on both corn and beans.  Will China be back again to save the day with more purchases?  Domestic markets there have not settled down, government auctions continue to see rapid interest, and demand is reportedly continuing to hold firm despite the influx of feed grains.  South America is also starting to look towards next year already, though it’s months away yet, and early estimates are calling for yet another jump in Brazilian bean acres and production.

Egypt books dearer wheat

Wheat offer to the tender held by Egytptian buying agency, GASC, overnight saw values up about $5/t from the lows in the last tender, and yet they still bought eight boats after a bit of discounting from some of the higher offers to match cheaper offers.  I was an interesting tender in many ways and it appears that there was some pressure within a few parties to book the sale and close out long positions.  With GASC having now cleaned out most of those positions, what’s the next step when they inevitably tender again in a week or two?  It may prove interesting.

Yield/quality optimism US spring wheat

US spring wheat harvest is starting to poke along a little faster in southern areas, with early yields acceptable and good quality.  More pessimistic ideas are once again circulating around the North Dakota crop though, with tour-type estimates suggesting there was more permanent damage from the earlier weather.

Australia

The focus in Australia remains on weather and crop conditions where stress is starting to show.  Most of the crop nationally is in fair shape, but we could most definitely use a top up on moisture for the drier areas.  Weather maps have continued to add just a little bit of moisture into the forecasts for next week, but so far it is nothing substantial.  Markets remained largely offer side yesterday for new season grains, although canola has found a little strength with domestic values picking up $4-5/t.  Old crop remains tight across the zones with prices in delivered markets driving the show.