Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 July 2022

Lachstock Consulting, July 29, 2022

US wheat gained 2-3pc overnight. Winnipeg canola jumped 4.5pc, while MATIF rapeseed fell 2pc. Soybeans, corn gained 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US26.75 cents per bushel to 835.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 27.50c/bu to 896.50c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 18.25c/bu to 940.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €1.50/t to €328.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $0.75/t to $353.50/t;
  • Corn September contract up 14.75c/bu to 615c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 30.50c/bu to 1440.50c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$39.20/t to $863.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €12.25/t to €679.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$4/t to $423.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.697.

International

The grain community “remains sceptical about the prospects for shipments”, Ukragroconsult analysts said. Still, this week “the first caravan of ships, blocked in Ukrainian ports for five months, is being formed”.

Data from the Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy say that wheat has been harvested from 2.27 million hectares (46pc) and the total volume is about 8 million tonnes (average yield of 3.52 tonnes per hectare).

Spring wheat yield is expected to be sharply above last year at 47.7 bushels per acre (bu/acre) in North Dakota, the top producing US state (USDA’s estimated 51 bu/acre), according to preliminary estimates on the second day of Wheat Quality Council crop tour. The estimate is based on samples taken from 104 fields. Estimates for same time last year was 24.6 bu/acre but the crops lagging maturity, estimated to be two to three weeks behind normal, have raised some concerns that yields may fall short of expectations. Durum wheat is estimated at 39.9 bu/acre (USDA projection of 40 bu/acre), based on 29 stops compared to 23.6 bu/acre on second day of tour a year ago.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that the moisture condition of Argentine wheat has improved since last week thanks to rains across an area that accounts for 40pc of plantings. An estimated 35pc of plants have a poor/dry moisture condition versus 44pc last week.

More dry and hot weather expected in the coming weeks in key European corn growing regions is expected to cause further damage to crops already stressed by a dry spring and sweltering temperatures earlier this month.

MAXAR weather reports that rainfall over the past week in the US Corn Belt has led to significant improvements in soil moisture in central plains and the southern midwest. Corn-weighted soil moisture is now just slightly below the 2008-2021 average across the US Corn Belt as a whole, but remains significantly below normal in Minnesota, Iowa, and North Dakota. Rainfall over the next week is expected to be mostly limited to far southern portions of the Corn Belt, with the axis of heaviest rainfall shifting southward compared to this past week. As a result, soil moisture is expected to decline across most of the Corn Belt. Hotter weather this weekend and next week will also contribute to soil moisture declines and will likely stress both pollinating and filling corn, especially in Iowa and Missouri.

Australia

Local markets have been quiet this week with feed wheat, barley and sorghum prices remaining unchanged through northern markets, while southern wheat values have been off $15-20/t in thin trade,

The Blue Mountains rail line reopened this week allowing a backlog of containers carrying agricultural and other commodities to move from central New South Wales to Port Botany. The line has been open for 12 hours a day since Monday, and will be open around the clock from Saturday.

 

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