Crude oil was up two and a half bucks to $61 WTi / $64.5 Brent and the DOW gained 453 points into the close as optimism picked back up.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US0.75c/bu to 613.25c;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 1.5c/bu to 568.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract down 3.5c/bu to 614c;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €0.75/t to €214.75;
- Corn May contract up 6c/bu to 552.5c;
- Soybeans May contract down 13.75c/bu to 1400.5c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract down C$30/t to $751.50;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract down €10/t to €506.25;
- US dollar index down 0.1 to 92.7;
- AUD firmer at US$0.763;
- CAD firmer at $1.257;
- EUR firmer at $1.189;
- ASX wheat May contract down A$4.80/t to $277.20;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $7.30/t to $287.70.
The Suez Canal is still blocked and there’s plenty of speculation about how long it will take to clear.
This is flowing through yet again into freight markets, with the front-end inverse that we’ve seen in bulk freight holding up firmly and continuing to fill out the forward curve with the new pressure.
Inflation concerns are back in play again for the US dollar, with yet another stimulus proposal hitting the political presses in the US – more direct payments begin called for.
At the same time, the new virus surge in Europe and the stagnating recovery there, not helped any by the new lock-downs, continues to lead towards diverging growth expectations. Markets are pricing in a substantial lag before any major recovery hits there.
This week’s prospective plantings report remains sharply in focus for markets, with a secondary consideration on stocks. Surveyed trade estimates are right around 90 million acres of beans, 93-94 of corn. More farmer survey results are also out pre-report, generally implying similar levels on corn but less overall beans, with a smaller total pie.
The US Sec of Ag made comments Friday that partially re-assured grain markets about the potential Mexican GMO ban, suggesting that such a ban would not impact animal feeds. US corn/milo are both significant exports to Mexico to fill feedlots there.
Black Sea weather maps are filling in nicely on the extended runs with a widespread 1.5″ or so across the majority of the Russian winter wheat areas and much of Ukraine.
South American weather maps are also looking fairly decent for safrinha corn, with dry weather into this week but some more moisture into next.
Australian markets were fairly quiet at the end of the week, little changed overall from earlier in this week. There’s still a focus on execution and short term logistics. Export programs are seeing a little pressure from the massive firmness in front-end freight
The JobKeeper stimulus has expired, raising some new concerns about the upcoming impacts from expected job losses. But overall recovery is generally expected to offset any such slowdowns into the longer term.
Reports about problems getting import permits for hay into China have popped up. It’s something that feels very familiar to those in the grain side of things, though the earlier wheat sales are still loading and shipping so far.
China’s also finally put in official anti-dumping duties on Australia wine.
Source: Lachstock Consulting