The oilseeds firmed overnight and grain markets were mixed.
- Chicago wheat September contract down US5.25c/bu to 646.25c;
- Kansas wheat September contract up 0.25c/bu to 627c;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract down 19.5c/bu to 814.5c;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25/t to €202.75/t;
- Corn September contract up 1c/bu to 559.25c;
- Soybeans September contract up 1.75c/bu to 1317.5c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract up C$25.10/t to $794.60;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract up €8.25/t to €526.25/t;
- US dollar index up 0.2 to 92.1;
- AUD weaker at US$0.751;
- CAD weaker at $1.240;
- EUR weaker at $1.190;
- ASX wheat July contract down A$1/t to A$292/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up $2/t to $302/t.
Minneapolis wheat selling off today proved more about balancing positions and squaring books pre-report than any substantial fundamental change. Weather maps are still extremely hot and dry for spring wheat areas in the US and Canada and ongoing deterioration in conditions remains the name of the game for the crop.
Quieter moves were evident elsewhere on grain markets overnight as the trade squared-up ahead of tomorrow’s USDA reports. Chicago wheat ended down 5 1/4¢, KC +1/4¢, Minny -19.5¢ (though it traded new highs earlier in the session), and Matif -0.25€ on the earlier close. Corn was up a penny and beans +1 3/4 (Matif +8.25€, Winnipeg +$25.1). Crude oil has finally seen a steady day, at $73.4 WTI / $74.8 Brent and the DOW was up 9 points. The USD has picked up strength to 92.0, with the AUD falling back to 75.1¢, the CAD $1.239, and the EUR $1.189.
USDA’s upcoming quarterly stocks and acreage reports will be released early tomorrow. Surveyed figures are averaging, for the acreage report, around 93.8 million acres corn and 88.9 million acres beans. Markets all agree on some increase, the question is how much of one and the differences there can be several million acres. Stocks figures sare also wide-ranging, with averages about 4.1 bbu on corn and 780 mbu on beans.
Tomorrow is also first notice day on July grain futures, with most expecting very light deliveries across the complex.
StatsCan released acreage figures, with no real surprises to the trade, as normal, all wheat acres at 23.4 million of which 16.5 spring and canola up to 22.5 million acres.
Weather maps still are bringing 1-2″ across most of the eastern corn belt, no real changes there.
Black Sea markets are catching some cautious pressure, with an eye on the board going into the report as always, as harvest picks up pace and more sellers come out of the woodwork. Confidence is also growing in large wheat and barley yield potential across much of the area.
All eyes are looking towards tonight’s USDA reports. While there’s plenty of bullish optimism going around, as always it will come down to what the USDA data says. Markets will trade off the figures as they come out, regardless of what the numbers are.
New crop markets picked up A$2-3/t yesterday after the board moves, although liquidity remains thin overall.
Canola jumping up some $20/t with the excitement there
Old crop markets seeing a little support from domestic consumptive coverage for the early spring, but again a question of volume/liquidity.
BOM maps still looking good for southern Qld, although the latest runs have shifted slightly and pulled back for some in northern NSW later this week.
Source: Lachstock Consulting