Northern hemisphere markets continued 1pc to 2pc lower, wheat importers came to buy.
NB: most of the quotations below have rolled forward to the next futures month, such as December rolling to March because by this time the forward month becomes more relevant than the spot month.
- Chicago wheat March contract down US18 cents per bushel to 822.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract down 11.75c/bu to 857.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March down 3.25c/bu to 1045.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract down €5.25/t to €297.50/t;
- Corn March contract down 9.5c/bu to 582.25c/bu;
- Soybeans March contract down 11c/bu to 1252c/bu
- Winnipeg canola January 2022 contract down C$11.50/t to $1027.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2022 contract down €10.75/t to €661.50/t;
- US dollar index was up 0.2 to 96.3;
- Dow Jones industrial average up 0.7 per cent.
- Brent crude oil futures price up 2.3 per cent.
- AUD firmer at US$0.715;
- CAD firmer at $1.274;
- EUR weaker at $1.129;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up A$5/t to $435/t;
- ASX wheat January 2023 up $4/t to $410/t.
International
Wheat bleeds lower – Chicago falls 18usc/bu, Kansas falls 11.75usc/bu while Minni only sheds 3.25usc/bu. Matif wheat falls €5.25/mt in the March while Black Sea wheat took a US$8/mt beating. Risk off – more of it… interestingly during the session wheat was around 15usc/bu higher as the wider markets decided that Omicrom wasn’t that bad. Fast forward to the close and I’m sure profit taking took over. Corn lost 9.5usc/bu, soybeans fell 11usc/bu while meal dropped USD$9.40/st. bean oil fell 0.81usc/lb while Matif canola dropped another €11.75/mt. Canadian canola was C$17.5 higher at one point but finished down C$11.5/mt. The Dow added 236 points back on. Crude found USD$1.53/bbl after trading almost USD$5/bbl higher during our session.
GASC went shopping as global wheat markets fell. It is an interesting time with Dec contracts heading into delivery, spot fun and games will be abundant in markets that are moving around as much as ags. The Egyptian buyer managed to lift 0.6Mt from Romania, Russian and Ukraine.
Jordan is also trying to take advantage of the break in prices, tendering for 120,000t wheat.
La Nina in Argentina is a concern for the upcoming summer crop. The crucial Jan/Feb period is generally dry in a textbook La Nina, as Buenos Aires Exchange flagged yesterday.
China did a flyby into the Defence Identification Zone to the southwest of Taiwan.
In the USDA weekly progress report, sorghum was 97pc harvested compared with 94pc last week and 96pc average. The condition of the winter wheat crop was rated 44pc good-to-excellent, versus 44pc last week and 46pc a year ago.
USDA reporting on corn or soybeans harvest or winter wheat plantings has finished for this season.
Today’s USDA publication is the last weekly Crop Progress report that will be issued for the 2021 season. The first USDA weekly report for 2022 will be released on Monday, April 4, 2022.
Australia
Cash board markets kicked off the week firmer along the east coast with wheat up $5-6/t again on most grades. There were some stronger moves on ASW1 with, for example, Kembla cash bids up $10/t.
South Australian wheat values have continued to firm and now reports of quality issues on falling numbers across the state. Barley grower bids were up $4-5/t while trade bids pulled back $5 and offers remained unchanged. Pulses have struck a bid in the past week, with a softer Australian currency turning on some more export demand. Containers remain tight but seeing more bulk activity on lentils and faba beans.
Field pea demand remained strong from China in the past month. Lentils have been a focus for growers through South Australia and Victoria.
Headers in the Western Districts of Victoria got going on canola yesterday while wheat and barley are now starting to ramp up in parts of the Mallee and Wimmera regions. Fine weather for the balance of the week is forecast for most of the country, so we hope to see the tonnes come in quickly now from northern NSW all the way around to WA.
The ABARES November crop estimates released overnight predicted 34.3Mt wheat, 13.2Mt barley and 5.7Mt canola.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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