Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 September 2021

Lachstock Consulting, September 30, 2021

Markets firmed overnight. Th e US dollar index firmed.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US3.75c/bu to 710.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 6.75c/bu to 711c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December down 3.75c/bu to 903.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2/t to €256/t;
  • Corn December contract up 6.5c/bu to 539c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 6.75c/bu to 1283.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$8.50 to $894.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €13.25/t to €646.25/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.6 to 94.4;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.718;
  • CAD weaker at $1.276;
  • EUR weaker at $1.160;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $2/t to $337/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2023 up $0.50/t to $350.50/t.

International

Macro markets have been keeping an eye on the upcoming US debt showdown, just a few weeks away from a potential government shutdown.  Most expect that there will be a solution found soon, but plenty of political brinkmanship is at play by both sides with no apparent short term resolution in sight.

With the stocks and acreage reports out Thursday (US time), Reuter survey figures for this week’s reports the other day put average guesses for the wheat crop at 1.68 bbu, slightly below the USDA’s last update and reflecting a lower spring wheat idea.  Stocks survey averages were 1.15bbu corn and 175mbu beans, both about WASDE level. The only real unknown is the feed/residual value.

More worries emerged about the possibility of ASF hitting the US have seen the government there pledge some $500 million for preventative actions, after recent detections of the disease in the Caribbean.

Weekly EIA ethanol figures had stocks higher yet again to 20.2 million barrels and production back slightly to 915,000bpd.  Ethanol operators have been more optimistic in the last few weeks with firmer margins and weaker corn values, the overall rally in energy also assisting.

Updated estimates on Algeria’s OAIC tender are talking up to 600,000t bought, but the talk is that it was mostly French origin with OAIC accepting some lower grade specs to get it bought.  Prices were pegged in the mid $360s to $370s levels per tonne.

US weather maps are still building that system for early October across the Corn Belt, increasing concerns about some harvest delays. Much of the cutting so far has seen very dry grain so the rain may actually slightly help yields by boosting moisture back up.

Brazil is also still looking for some more moisture on the latest model runs, but still fairly light and not expected to be a major planting delay outside of some parts of southern Parana.

Australia

Markets remained quiet yesterday with everyone focused on the rains. A solid inch was reported across most of NSW through yesterday and sentiment improved across the state though there are a few localised flooding concerns.

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