Daily Market Wire 4 December 2019

Guest Author December 4, 2019

Futures markets were mixed overnight Tuesday.

  • Chicago wheat March contract down 10 cents per bushel to 525.25c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 2.5c/bu to 436.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 3.75c/bu to 513.5c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €0.75 per tonne to €184.25/t;
  • Corn March contract down 0.75c/bu to 381.25c;
  • Soybeans January contract up 0.25c/bu to 871c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$0.80/t to $452.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €1/t to €389.25/t;
  • Brent crude January contract down US$0.10 to $60.92 per barrel;
  • Dow Jones index points; DOW dropped 280 points to 27,502 points;
  • AUD stronger at $0.6848;
  • CAD stronger at $1.3294;
  • EUR stronger at $1.1082.

Market wrap

  • GASC booked five Russian, with French offers at freight disadvantage
  • Harvest picking back up in VIC, good outlooks through the rest of the week
  • WA/SA markets continue to firm with demand supporting

Chicago wheat continued to break off, closing down 10¢ to 525 1/4¢, while KC gave up two and a half to 436 3/4¢, Minny picked up 3 3/4¢ to 513.5¢, and Matif was off 3/4€ to 184.25 after Russian offers undercut French into GASC. Corn closed down half a cent to 381 1/4¢ while beans picked up 2 1/4¢ off overnight lows to 871¢.  Matif rapeseed was up a euro to 389 1/4€ and Winnipeg canola picked up 80¢ to $452.9.

Equity markets continued to sell off hard amidst trade concerns, with the DOW down 280 points – while crude traded a limited change (up a dime on WTI, down a dime Brent – though both have since picked up a quarter post US session).  The AUD is trading at 68.5¢, the CAD at $1.329, and the EUR at $1.108.

As we’ve noted before, the “close” trade deal seems far from it – latest comments from the US president have put the damper even tighter down on those optimistic for a near term deal and moved the goal posts into late 2020.

GASC business went entirely to Russia in the overnight tender, with offers booked around the US$235-6/t range.

Russian and French offers were at FOB parity (up a bit under $5/t since last tender), leaving French out of the business after freight disadvantage – somewhat surprising Lachstock as we’d expected firmer Russian offers given the timing over holidays.

We also note that Algeria’s back in again, so there may be more French interest there. We’ll need to see how Argentine wheat sets its prices and availability.

Otherwise, it’s been a quiet start to the week in global markets. Ongoing talk of good South American crop outlooks, slightly tempered by some dryness in Argentina.

There’s nothing new on the China front besides questions about how much demand remains between now and new season harvest in Brazil come February.

Logistics outlooks there have improved; we note that as of the other week the BR163 Highway appears to be fully paved, which increases the potential for a rapid early export program.

US row-crops are still far from complete on harvest though, and an ongoing question that’s continued to support domestic basis there for corn.


Back locally, Aussie cash bids through South Australia pushed higher again yesterday by $2-3/t across all port zones.

WA markets have also continued to firm, with Kwinana APW1 hitting seasons highs amidst ongoing short covering for near-term shipments and lower crop ideas following the last few weeks of harvest.

The Victorian harvest kicked off again yesterday after weather delays, and hope to see good progress there in the next week. Yield results have remained very solid in southern parts of the state.

Weather models are also starting to add a few light chances of showers across the Downs into later this week, but no significant accumulation as of the latest runs.

With extremely limited acres in the ground for sorghum, mostly some irrigated parcels, we’re running out of time for a turn-around there.


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