Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 5, 2022

Soybeans eased 2pc. Canola, rapeseed, US wheat clawed back gains following Thursday’s heavy losses.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US16.75 cents per bushel to 811c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 9.75c/bu to 877.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 3.5c/bu to 890c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1.50/t to €320/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.50/t to $315.75/t;
  • Corn December contract down 7.75c/bu to 665.75/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 25.75c/bu to 1425.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was up C$5.10/t to $817.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €7.75/t to €612.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$8/t to $395/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$315/t;
  • AUD dollar unchanged at US$0.679.

International

To date 89 ships have left Ukrainian ports carrying 1.2Mt corn, 386,000t wheat, 150,000t sunflower oil, 82,000t rapeseed, 77,000t barley and 69,000t sunflower meal. There are currently 40 vessels either moored at port or inbound.

FranceAgriMer reports that as of August 29 2022/23 maize harvesting is at 1pc complete, with the crop rated at 45pc good/excellent, marking a new low (47pc previous week, 91pc previous year).

Algerian traders reportedly purchased an estimated 105,000t milling wheat from Russia at around $364/t c&f, Sep/Oct shipment.

According to Ukraine’s Ag Minister 2023/24 rapeseed acreage is expected to remain stable y/y, at 1.1Mha, reflecting a general shift from grains to oilseeds plantings, which are relatively more profitable and easier to manage from a logistical perspective.

StoneX Group has revised down its US 2022/23 maize production forecast by 6.3Mt to 359.9Mt (364.7m WASDE Aug), with average yields trimmed by 0.2t/ha to 10.8t/ha (11.1t/ha, 11.1t/ha). Soybean production forecast was increased by 0.7Mt, to 122.9Mt (123.3Mt), with yields raised slightly, to 3.5t/ha (3.5t/ha)

StoneX Group 2022/23 Brazilian soybean production forecast was raised by 0.9Mt, to 153.6Mt (150.4m Conab Aug f’cast, 124.0m previous year). Total maize output seen at 125.1Mt (125.5m, 114.7m)

FAO slashed its 2022 global cereal grain production forecast by 17.2Mt from last month to 2,774Mt amid “persistent drought conditions in northern hemisphere countries.” FAO now forecasts 2022 global cereal grain production down 38.9Mt (1.4pc) from last year.

Australia

Local markets rounded off the week a touch softer to relatively unchanged on the boards, current crop liquidity slowing on Friday.  Domestic demand continues to be on the bid for pre-harvest delivery through October-November slots.

The grains industry is working to find tens of thousands of harvest casuals to fill roles both on farm and at grain receival sites, with major bulk handlers requiring over 7500 workers for the harvest period. The rural workforce crisis was a talking point at the Federal Government’s jobs summit last week.

The 8-day forecast is looking pretty wet across the entire winter cropping region with 15-50mm expected across the board.

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