Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 6, 2021

Moves in most markets were small and mixed. Canola firmed 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US4.5c/bu to 712.75c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 2.75c/bu to 691.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 0.75c/bu to 903.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €0.75/t to €225/t;
  • Corn September contract was up 10c/bu to 555.75c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 3.75c/bu to 1335.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$6.60 to $879.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €6.25/t to €539.50/t;
  • US dollar index unchanged at 92.3;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.740;
  • CAD firmer at $1.250;
  • EUR weaker at $1.183;
  • ASX wheat September contract up $2/t to A$329/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $2/t to $324/t.

International

Mixed and fairly quiet markets overnight saw Chicago down 4 1/4¢, KC -2 3/4¢, Minny +3/4¢, and Matif +0.75€ on the earlier close.  Corn was up a dime and beans gained 3 3/4¢ off the back of the corn strength (Matif +6.25€, Winipeg +$6.6).  Crude oil is up nearly a buck to $69.1 WTI / $71.3 Brent and the DOW gained 272 points.  The AUD is trading around 74.0¢, the CAD $1.250, and the EUR $1.183 (with the dxy at 92.3).

Regular The US weekly export sales reported 0.3 million tonnes (Mt) wheat, 0.8Mt new crop corn and 0.4Mt new crop beans.  Markets are discussing the destination China cancellations of two boats of old crop corn and one of beans. They do not appear to have rolled to new crop.  Outstanding old crop corn sales to unknown/China are still over 3Mt with almost exactly a month to go to execute or roll to new crop.

Milo/sorghum sales were near zero with mostly tonnage adjustments.

We also got a new season bean sales flash of 300,000t to unknown.

Argentina’s trucker strikes have been called off once again. Business starting again although there are concerns about strikes resuming in a few days.

Informa pitched US corn yield at 176.5 bu/acre, beans 51.5 bu/acre.

The next WASDE report will be out a week from last night. Markets are focused on where the USDA will peg corn and bean yields.  USDA no longer uses objective yield surveys in the August report for corn. Objective survey yield data are used for the reports in Sept/Oct/Nov.  This estimate will be the first change from their early season model-driven figures and, without the objective yield survey, is based on a mixture of farmer surveys and remote observation data.

Weather maps for the Corn Belt are expanding the rain forecasts for the northern corn areas – with chances of over an inch now spreading into eastern Nebraska and Kansas in addition to the Iowa/IL/IN areas.

USDA will publish new cattle price data in an effort to deal with concerns about lack of transparency in cash cattle markets. Still to be seen if it has any impacts on the boards.

Saudi Arabia has cancelled their import tax on wheat.

Australia

The RBA statement on monetary policy is due today.

New crop wheat markets saw some firmer bids at easy execution sites yesterday.  Canola markets were also firmer across the country last night with bids up by over $10 in places in WA.

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