Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 July 2019

Lachstock Consulting, July 8, 2019

CME futures markets closed a little lower on Friday; the spring wheat and oilseeds exchanges dipped more than one per cent.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up 1 cent per bushel to 515c
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 1.5c to 445.25c,
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 6.75c to 533.25c,
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25 per tonne to €178.25;
  • Corn September contract up 2c to 438.75c;
  • Soybeans August contract down 13.6c to 876c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract down C$5.90/t to $442.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €1.75 to €363;
  • Light sweet crude oil up $0.17 per barrel to $51.17;
  • Dow Jones down 43.88 points to 26,922.12;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.6981c;
  • CAD weaker at $1.3077;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1224.

Quiet moves on the grain markets on Friday after the holiday – Chicago wheat closed +2.5¢ to 515¢, KC +3¢ to 445 ¼¢, Minny -6 ¾¢ to 533 ¼¢, and Matif was off a euro and a quarter to 178 ¼€ on the earlier close.  Corn picked up 2.5¢ to 438 ¾¢ and beans dropped 14 ½¢ to 876¢ (canola took a similar hit, with Winnipeg -$5.9 to $442.8, Matif -1 ¾€ to 363€). Lachstock does note that the US Federal Reserve Chairman will be testifying before Congress there on Wednesday and Thursday – with the potential to see currency markets respond to his comments.

Bean sales up, corn disappoint

Updated CFTC reports will be out tonight (Monday US time) after the holidays last week.  Meanwhile, Friday’s export sales figures in the US were seen as disappointing for corn (only 330,000t in total) and wheat (276,000t – with no surprise business).  Beans sales were more supportive, but brought no real surprises – with 607,000t of the old crop sales to China after the political improvements there (and future sales remain contingent upon said politics).  There is talk of more potential “goodwill” business to come as trade talks pick back up – but in the meantime there’s no indication that the US will cave to China’s demands to remove all tariffs as a precondition for a deal.

Heat helps harvest quality

Black Sea harvest has continued to pick up pace, with Russian yield starting to drop off slightly (though still better than last year) – but with much better protein results still coming in.  On the EU side of the Black Sea, Bulgaria’s Ag ministry pushed up their official local crop forecast after positive early yield results there (pencilling a crop of 5.6 million tonnes versus 5.4Mt last year).  Updated French crop conditions out on Friday took wheat conditions rating to 75 per cent (pc) good/excellent, down from 80pc last week) – though with much of the crop mature at the time of the heat, and early harvest in the south going well, the question is how much this will be reflected in yields as harvest moves north.  At the same time, Egypt’s GASC has suggested that they have 4.5 months of wheat in storage – time for another tender there?

Australia

Rains across southern NSW were mostly disappointing though largely as the forecasts had called for – much of the cropping belt only saw 5-10 mm if lucky.  There were better falls recorded down onto the more eastern parts of the Riverina, and into the Mallee in Victoria.  With crops on the edge in dry conditions, the precipitation has helped avoid an immediate disaster/collapse – but there’s no follow-up rain on the radar for this week or into longer term forecasts for next week, yet.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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