Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 March 2019

Lachstock Consulting, March 8, 2019

Another heavy fall overnight in grain futures market; oilseeds were mixed.

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was down 11.75c to 438.25c
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 11c to 427.5c
  • Corn May contract down 7.25c to 365.25c
  • Soybeans May contract up 0.5c to 902.5c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$0.90 to $456.20
  • MATIF canola May contract up €0.25/t to €357.50
  • Dow Jones down 200.23 points to 25,473.23
  • Crude oil up $0.44 to 56.66
  • AUD down to 0.7009c,
  • CAD down to 1.346c,
  • EUR down to 1.118c.

Market commentary

Wheat hit another round of heavy fund selling pressure overnight, with Chicago dropping 12¢, KC -12¢, Minny -2¢ (unch K), and Matif -2€ on the earlier close.  Corn broke down 8¢, while beans were off a penny.  Winnipeg canola bounced slight to close up $1, while Matif was unchanged on the front end.  Crude oil has picked up 35¢ (20¢ on Brent) while the DOW has given up 230 points.  The EUR has been slapped down after the ECB noted that they will not be raising rates any time before the end of the year – trading off over a cent to $1.118.  With the overall dollar strength, other currencies have also broken back – the AUD is flirting with 70¢ and the CAD is off slightly to $1.346.

Trade news

The USDA’s next WASDE report is out tonight – normally not a significant fundamental report, but many are asking questions about how much adjustment they will make to export estimates on old crop US balance sheets (particularly on beans and wheat).  Survey ideas are generally expecting limited changes, but that does not always align with emotional expectations.  US export sales did come in a little above expectations for wheat at 622 kmt (vs ideas below 500 kmt), below ideas on beans at only 311 kmt (though there has also been talk today of purchases underway), and in range on corn at 970 kmt.  Lachstock also notes the presence of a milo/sorghum sale to China – the first of the year and surprising giving the ongoing politics.  Still no news on a deal there beyond the rumors . . .   Looking beyond wheat, we still haven’t seen a SAGO tender hit on barley..

Oilseed markets

Oilseed markets remain politically driven, with some speculation that the USDA’s changes to bean exports will reflect their perception of progress on China/US trade talks.  Canadian canola remains on edge too, with ongoing verbal sparing over the Huawei case as the Chinese government attempts to pressure Canada to change their path there.  More fundamentally, down in South America, Argentina’s BA Grain Exchange has noted improved soil conditions following recent rains – and continues to call for a 53Mt soybean harvest this year.

Australia

Forecasts for coastal storms across Queensland have shifted further inland – bringing a better chance for some noticeable precipitation across the Downs and LPP.  Further west and south though remains exceptionally dry on the radar.

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