Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 November 2020

Lachstock Consulting, November 9, 2020

Commodities ended lower on Friday.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US7.25cents per bushel to 602c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 7.75c/bu to 555.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 3.75c/bu to 557.25c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.25/t to €208.75;
  • Corn December contract down 2.5c/bu to 406.75c;
  • Soybeans January contract down 2.25c/bu to 1101.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola January down C$4.50/t to $545.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €4.25/t to €398;
  • Brent crude January contract down US$1.48 per barrel to $39.45;
  • Dow Jones index down 67 points  to 28,323;
  • AUD firmer at $0.728;
  • CAD firmer at $1.303;
  • EUR firmer at $1.189.

International

Macro markets are now juggling the potential for (further) significant changes to US global trade policy. Speculation in particular is focused on how President-elect Biden will handle the Chinese situation.  With the trade deal anniversary rapidly approaching there are many questions in play about whether the Chinese Government will attempt to back out of their commitments. If so, how would the new administration respond.

The next USDA WASDE report comes out tomorrow US time; ideas are for slightly lower corn and soybean yields, though most discussion is focused on the tightening global corn situation. The market has realised the potential for far larger Chinese corn imports, but that situation has not yet been acknowledged in the WASDE board official numbers.

The USDA’s baseline projections were released on Friday.  These highly generalised figures reflect only its overall estimates on long-run trends in the ag industry, but are used by some as a baseline for new-season figures.  The updated numbers on Friday had 2021-22 corn area at 90 million acres, soybean at 89 million and total wheat at 46 million.

Updated flash sales had two more boats of soybeans to China (132,000t) and 272,000t to unknown.  Corn unknown sales had 207,000t flashed.

Brazilian soybean areas have more moisture coming this week and into next, though overall dryness concerns remain

Russian weather maps remain exceedingly dry into next week for most winter wheat areas.  Germinated crops are reportedly in fair condition in many places, but severe moisture deficits remain a significant concern.

Saudi Arabia’s SAGO wheat tender results are due out to start this week, and barley markets are watching for an expected follow up barley tender to come.

Australia

Good harvest weather continues to allow for rapid progress across most of the east coast

Weather maps predict some light showers later this week across New South Wales, and storms across Victoria and parts of Western Australia’s Albany zone.  Otherwise the forecast remains fairly dry weather good which is good for harvesting.

Yields remain very positive across the east coast.

Trade markets firmed a hair on Friday with the global gains and ongoing discussion about the competitiveness of Australian grain into export homes

 

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