TIGHTENING feed supplies in New South Wales have seen the Newcastle port zone join Brisbane as an importer of grain from southern Australian ports.
Grain from southern Australia is being shipped to Newcastle to supply coastal feed markets.
Trade sources said this increased supply had been helping keep a lid on prices in Queensland and northern NSW.
Robinson Grain trader, Adam Robinson, said southern markets were continuing to rise based on production concerns.
“What’s coming into southern Queensland by sea and truck and rail seems to have capped the market, and values in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria are increasing,” Mr Robinson said.
“In the north, they’ve still got the chance of a summer crop, which will help the demand side, but I’d expect wheat to be coming into Queensland for the next for the next 12 months.”
Mr Robinson said even crops in relatively good order in Victoria, South Australia and southern NSW were late-planted, and production concerns were creeping south and west from NSW.
“New-crop is going up if you look at the ASX, but the farmer isn’t engaging,” he said.
Broun & Co Grain director, Wal Broun, said wheat and barley supplies at up-country sites within the Newcastle zone were running low, and wheat arriving by sea was being offered free on truck (FOT).
“SFW1 and ASW/APW wheat coming into Newcastle is supplying the big poultry feedmills, and feeding the North Coast,” Mr Broun said.
“There’s grain still available in the Port Kembla zone, and that’s coming up into southern Queensland.
“The market’s steady on wheat, with Newcastle track at $380 per tonne for APW for July transfer, and Port Kembla at $360.”
The poultry and dairy sectors and large-scale feedmills in the wider Brisbane region continue to be supplied by feedgrain which is being shipped to Brisbane and offered at $390-$395/t FOT.
“When you add road freight to that, it’s a little too expensive to make it work for end-users on the Darling Downs.
“They’re still able to get barley up by road from the south at around $405/t.”
Cottonseed rally
Northern NSW and Queensland ginning operations at many sites will close for the year this month.
Mr Broun said this had removed sell-side pressure from the big 2018 crop.
“Cottonseed has gotten scarce in the past week, even though I think there’s still a lot out there unsold.
“The gins aren’t under pressure now to sell it, and what’s left can be stored.
“That’s pushed the market up this week to an offer price of $400/t ex Namoi gin, when the market was $370/t last week.
“The market hasn’t embraced that new price level, but it might settle in between where the bids and offers are as we come to terms with the lack of new-crop in northern NSW.”
Mr Robinson said cottonseed offers from the Macquarie Valley north were drying up, and seed from southern gins was selling into the domestic market, which had risen $10-$15/t in the past week or two.
Sorghum has been trading in limited volume, mostly into the poultry market, and is expected to price itself into feedlot rations if it drops a few dollars to a $50/t discount to wheat and barley.
New-crop firms
Traders said new-crop values were appreciating on limited trade and grower selling in eastern states, while old-crop values were relatively flat.
Mr Broun said the new-crop market had lifted $10-$15/t in the past two or three weeks to meet the steady old-crop market.
In southern NSW, barley is still being sought by graziers to supplement paddock feed available to livestock, and trade in faba beans outside the farmer-to-farmer market has dried up.
Winter crops northwest of Dalby around Brigalow and Warra appear to have the best yield prospects of any on the Darling Downs, where some late planting took place on rain at the end of June.
“None of it looks fantastic,” one Downs-based trader said.
“The grower isn’t forward selling, and everyone’s nervous because the crop needs a lot of rain to finish, and there’s not a lot of other crop around.”
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| ASW wheat | Feed barley | Cottonseed | |
| Delivered Darling Downs | $400-$405 | $400-$405 | $385 |
| Delivered MIA | $340 | $360-$370 | $320-$325 |
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