RUSSIA is forecast to ship 35 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in 2018/19 to retain its position as the world’s largest exporter of wheat, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) June 2018 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
This is despite Russia’s production at 68.5Mt being down markedly from last year’s record of 85Mt because of dry weather, which the latest WASDE report says will trim about 2 per cent from the previous 2018/19 estimate for the European Union.
On the upside, record yields have lifted the USDA’s production forecast for India by 2pc.
In terms of world wheat usage, consumption is expected to fall 3Mt because less is expected to be used as feed in Russia and the EU.
The USDA has lifted its forecast of ending stocks by 2Mt from the May figure to 266Mt at end 2018/19, compared with 272Mt in the previous year.
Coarse grains tighten
The USDA has forecast generally tighter balance sheets for the main coarse grains: corn; sorghum; barley; oats, and rye.
It reported an expected recovery of 1.3Mt in US sorghum exports to China following last month’s announcement that its Ministry of Commerce would terminate certain investigations into sorghum trade.
Barley 2018/19 crop forecasts were raised for Argentina and lowered for India, the EU and Ukraine.
The USDA has lowered estimates for global canola/rapeseed and cottonseed crops.
Brazil’s higher soybean numbers in both the current 2017/18 crop, and new-crop 2018/19 would raise not only its production and exports, but also ending stocks.
These have been further increased by a late revision to Brazil’s crush usage of soybeans for the 2016/17 year.
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