Luke Walker, Alliance Grains

GRAIN markets are as nervous as a Queensland Maroons supporter when big Andrew Fifita gets the ball in rugby league’s State of Origin clashes.

Prices have rallied over $25/tonne in the first two weeks of June, causing anxiety for buyers who have been watching this market firm every day over the past few months on disappointing weather changes and thinking they should have bought more earlier in the year.

Growers on the other hand are happy to sit out of the market and wait for the new financial year before selling more grain into the market. Many are preferring to wait until rain has fallen on recently sown crops so they can be confident of producing a crop for 2018.

The clock is ticking for growers sitting on old crop too as they know this market will correct itself if it rains on the grain belt, and then farmers and traders start selling July to October spreads.

In effect we are in a weather market and until, we see rain, this market will continue to firm.

The new crop planting window is slowly closing with most growers reporting 75-85 per cent planted.

ABARES has Australian wheat production pegged for 2017/2018 at 24.19 million tonnes (Mt), which is back 30pc on last year’s bumper wheat production.

They have Queensland production forecast to grow 1.1Mt of wheat this year, and 750,000t of chickpeas, and about the same for barley in Qld at 750,000t.

NSW has seen a shift in winter crops with canola to increase by 29pc in 2017/18 areas planted and another big year for chickpeas. Wheat production forecast is 7.7Mt for NSW.

Chickpeas are the crop of choice again this year and from Central Queensland down to Central NSW crops are in the ground.

New crop pricing has been holding around $820/t delivered Downs for November and grower sentiment is positive as they monitor their crops and look to lock in forward prices.

Old crop prices for chickpeas are still very strong and delivered Downs are $1030/t for July delivery.

Current markets on a delivered feedlot basis for July are trading at the following numbers: delivered Darling Downs sorghum $280/t delivered; feed wheat trading at $290/t; barley $275/t.

New crop prices for January 2018 delivered Downs: wheat $303/t and barley in the $290s/t.

The cottonseed market has been lacking some direction with limited export and domestic demand, ex gin Queensland border region trading $355/t and delivered Downs trading $380/t for June /July delivery.

2018 new crop cottonseed May delivered Downs has been going through at $360/t.

Liverpool Plains area has seen Newcastle track sorghum at $266/t, wheat delivered $245/t and barley $238/t.

Southern NSW in the Riverina area wheat delivered $225/t and barley $200/t.

Victorian Goulburn Valley wheat prices have held values pretty well at $230/t and barley $195/t. Feed maize $275/t.

• Prices quoted in this column are of an indicative nature only to illustrate trends and do not represent a definitive buy or sell price at a given point in time. For specific prices for your region contact the author at [email protected] or 0427 372 793 or twitter @lukewalker711