THE February World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released by the USDA overnight and, as reflected in overnight trading, has been seen as very bearish for corn, mildly bullish for wheat and neutral for soybeans.
On wheat, USDA’s global production estimate has risen 200,000 tonnes from the January forecast to 772.64 million tonnes (Mt).
A 300,000t cut for Argentina to 17.2Mt, and an increase for Kazakhstan to 14.26Mt from 12.5Mt seen last month are the major changes.
In wheat ending stocks, a 4Mt cut for China to 154.93Mt, and a 3.82Mt cut for India to 27.5Mt were the major drivers of the reduction in world ending stocks, now seen at 304.22Mt, down from 313.19Mt seen last month.
The forecast for China’s wheat imports rose 1Mt to 10Mt.
Wheat imports from South-East Asia are now seen at 25.95Mt, down from 26.25Mt in January, and exports to selected Middle Eastern countries has dropped 200,000t to 18Mt.
“Overall it’s a slightly bullish report given the global changes, but will be weighed on by corn,” Lachstock Consulting said of the wheat numbers in its report commentary.
Global corn ending stocks are now seen at 286.53Mt, up 2.7Mt from the January figure.
USDA’s forecast for China’s corn imports now stands at 24Mt, up 6.5Mt from January, its corn ending stocks are now seen at 196.18, up 4.5Mt, and its domestic feed corn use is now pegged at 206Mt, up 6Mt.
“The big miss is the US corn exports and carry-out.
“It seems USDA has decided that 1.5Mt is the minimum figure and that’s that for now.
“The US is not rationing export demand and has a huge forward book reported, so something still has to give.
“The expected increase in China corn imports was there, but it was washed with some reductions in EU imports and minor imports to balance the ledger.”
Bearish for corn was the 2.5Mt cut to Europe’s forecast imports, now seen at 15.5Mt, and cuts of 500,000t and 400,000t respectively for South Korea and Japan.
On soybeans, world ending stocks have been cut to 83.36Mt from 84.31Mt, and the estimate for China’s soybean imports was unchanged at 100Mt.
USDA’s forecast for soybean imports to Europe including the United Kingdom has been cut by 250,000t to 15.15Mt.