Wetter February to April likely for parts of eastern Australia, drier in parts of WA and SA

February to April rainfall is likely to be above median for much of northern and eastern Queensland, coastal NSW, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and small scattered parts of the Top End of the NT (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Conversely, parts of north and interior WA, and north-east SA are likely to have below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is below 40%). The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for February to April in much of northern and central Queensland and parts of coastal NSW extending into eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low rainfall is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually wet conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.

The month of February indicates above median rainfall is likely for much of northern and eastern Queensland, extending south to the Capricornia District, while large scattered areas of

WA are likely to have below median rainfall, as well as more isolated scattered areas across the NT and SA.

Past accuracy for February to April rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, shifting to low accuracy for central WA and western SA.