Weather

Seasonal climate outlook for February to April 2022

Bureau of Meteorology, January 28, 2022

February to April 2022 Rainfall outlook

Wetter February to April likely for parts of eastern Australia, drier in parts of WA and SA

February to April rainfall is likely to be above median for much of northern and eastern Queensland, coastal NSW, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and small scattered parts of the Top End of the NT (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Conversely, parts of north and interior WA, and north-east SA are likely to have below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is below 40%). The rest of Australia has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall (in the top 20% of historical records) for February to April in much of northern and central Queensland and parts of coastal NSW extending into eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania (1.5 to 2.5 times the usual chance). In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low rainfall is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually wet conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.

The month of February indicates above median rainfall is likely for much of northern and eastern Queensland, extending south to the Capricornia District, while large scattered areas of

WA are likely to have below median rainfall, as well as more isolated scattered areas across the NT and SA.

Past accuracy for February to April rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, shifting to low accuracy for central WA and western SA.

 

 

March 2022 rainfall outlook:

 

‘First look’ March to May 2022 rainfall outlook

 

Temperature outlook

Warmer nights for February to April, with warmer days for much of west, south and coastal north-east

February to April maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for WA, the southern NT, SA, western NSW, western Victoria, Tasmania and along the Queensland coastline east of the (greater than 60% chance). Below median temperatures are likely for eastern NSW and far eastern Victoria (less than 40% chance of above median). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for February to April over much of WA, the central NT, western and central parts of SA, and far western parts of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (1.5 to more 3.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in western WA. In any given outlook period, the chance of unusually high or low maximum temperatures is around 20%. This means that a 40% chance of unusually warm conditions is twice the normal likelihood, while 60% is three times.

Minimum temperatures for February to April are likely to be warmer than median Australia wide (chances are greater than 60%), with most areas very likely (greater than 80% chance).
There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for February to April over most of Australia (1.5 to more 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across the northern parts of the NT and Queensland, and western WA.

Past accuracy for February to April maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across most of Australia, with moderate to low accuracy in an area inland of central coast Queensland and on WA’s Pilbara coast.

 

Maximum temperature February to April

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for October to December 2021, issued 30 September 2021, with actual rainfall recorded over the October to December 2021 period.

Forecast median rainfall October to December 2021:

 

Actual rainfall recorded October to December 2021:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

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