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February to April rainfall is forecast to be below average in much of eastern Australia and above average in parts of the northwest and the northern NT, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest Seasonal Climate Outlook released this morning.

The Bureau says February is likely to be drier in parts of the east and wetter over WA and the northern NT.

Days and nights across eastern Australia are likely to be warmer than average for February to April, with cooler days and nights more likely in northwest Australia.

Outlooks for the northwest are being driven by tropical activity (such as the north Australian Monsoon and the Madden–Julian Oscillation which is forecast to be active in early February).

Further south, forecasts for above average pressure will likely bring clear skies and warmer than average daytime temperatures to parts of the southeast.

The Bureau notes that historical outlook accuracy for February to April rainfall “is somewhat patchy”, with moderate accuracy over most of the country, but low accuracy in inland parts of the NT extending along the WA border, as well as in small patches in Queensland, western NSW, and along the border of NSW and Victoria.

Warmer for eastern and central Australia; cooler for northwest

February to April maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in eastern and central Australia and cooler than average in northern WA and the northern NT.

February to April minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in parts of eastern Australia, but cooler in northern and central WA, and the northern two-thirds of the NT.

Outlooks in the northwest are being driven by active tropical weather in early February, while further south, higher than average pressure is likely.

Historical accuracy for maximum temperature is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is very low to low in parts of the east and the NT, but moderate for much of WA, southern SA and Tasmania.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology